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DWM is committed to learning for its team, clients and friends. In this changing world, it’s extremely important to stay current in all areas impacting your financial future.

We encourage all of team members to “drill down” on current topics important to you and contribute to our weekly blogs.  Questions from our clients and their families are often featured in our blogs.  

Financial literacy for clients and their families is very important to us.  We generally hold an annual wealth management seminar for all of our clients.  We encourage regular, at least semi-annual, meetings in person with our clients to review family updates, progress on financial goals, asset allocation and performance of investments.  We’re happy to assist younger members of the family as part of our total wealth management program.

Here’s our latest blog:

 

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Complacency Check: Markets Finally Go Down & the Return of Long Overdue Volatility

 Source: Goldman Sachs

 

The last week hasn’t been kind to investors. The S&P500 and Dow officially entered “correction” territory, which signifies a decline of at least 10% from a recent high, after all-time record highs only a couple weeks ago.   What’s going on???

 

The culprit: things were too good!  Recent stronger than expected reports on wages and jobs means growth may be “overheating” and that can lead to inflation and rising interest rates. Rising rates equal higher bond yields, which can make bonds more attractive than stocks, and – VOILA! - now traders don’t want to own stocks, many of which have become quite expensive on a valuation perspective from the nine-year Bull run. Then, in this worst-case scenario, stocks go down and that causes consumer confidence to wane which means Joe Investor won’t want to be another 4G TV. Consumer spending slows, corporate earnings suffer, and recession takes place.

 

Vicious circle, huh? It doesn’t have to be exactly like that. Furthermore, cycles can take a long time to play out – years, not days. In this fast-paced, information at your fingertips society we’re in, we forget that.

 

Last Friday’s jobs report showed the largest annual increase in wages since 2009. In hindsight, this wasn’t surprising given that 18 states pushed up minimum wages to start 2018. Furthermore, many major corporations, raking it in from the recent tax cuts, have provided one-time Tax Reform-related bonuses to workers. So these government reports, that some traders obsess over, may have been amplified for January and most likely will come down to earth in the ensuing months.

 

 

It was just a couple of years ago when many were concerned about DEFLATION and hoped of the day when the Fed could raise rates back to “normalcy”. This schizophrenic market is now focused on the fear of INFLATION. The threat of inflation and higher bond yields - evidenced by the Ten-Year Bond reaching four-year highs yesterday at 2.85% – has some worried. But frankly, a 3% or even 4% Ten-Year Bond environment shouldn’t be so concerning. For the last several decades, the 10-Year was higher than that and could be nice “fresh powder” for a Fed when recessionary times come.

 

 

The “buy the dip” mentality that has been so common place the last few years has not shown up this time around, or at least not until today. Some contend that “buy the dip” investors didn’t have enough time as the quants and hedge funds with big volatility-related bets work through the crash in that subsector.

 

 

After a very calm 2017 where we didn’t see any stock markets daily moves of over 2%, we’ve already had a few this year. Volatility is back to “normal” – not 2017 normal, but normal when we are comparing to the last 100 years or so. It was only February of 2016 when we had our last correction, which really isn’t that long ago. But complacency is unfortunately an easy characteristic to exhibit after such a long period of subdued volatility. Hopefully it didn’t lead to overconfidence.

So we’re in a correction…what do we do now?

 

 

There have been over a dozen market pullbacks of 5% or more since March 2009. This is another one! According to Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer within a January 29 report, “The average bull market ‘correction’ is 13% over four months and takes four months to recover.” Which tells you that generally when the market comes back, it does so relatively quickly, as we've already seen today.

 

 

So, it’s a fool’s game to try to time the market and jump in and out of it. No one has a crystal ball. Furthermore, we know that over time that staying invested is your friend. Studies show that just missing a few days of strong returns (which we could very well get next week or later this month), can drastically impact overall performance. 

So avoid any emotional mistakes by staying invested and staying disciplined. Don’t be making any short-term knee-jerk reactions; instead think long-term and focus on the things that can be controlled:

 

§  Create an investment plan to fit your needs and risk tolerance

§  Identify an appropriate asset allocation target mix

§  Structure a well-balanced, diversified portfolio

§  Reduce expenses through low turnover and via passive investments where available

§  Minimize taxes by using asset location, tax loss harvesting, etc.

§  Rebalance on a regular basis, taking advantage of market over-reactions by buying at low points of the market cycle and selling at high points

§  Stay Invested

 

In closing, a pullback / correction like this one is needed to allow the market to recalibrate. It can be a very healthy event because it may signify that the underlying assets’ valuations are getting back in line with fundamentals. So don’t get anxious over this return of long overdue market volatility. We should all get used to this “new normal” and not let our emotions cause us to take irrational actions that could lower our long-term chances of financial success.

 

Don’t hesitate to contact us to further discuss your portfolios and your overall wealth management.

 

 

 

Complacency Check: Markets Finally Go Down & the Return of Long Overdue Volatility

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How to Access the DWM Blog

Written by Grant Maddox.

email-logo.pngAt DWM, we work hard to stay up to date on all things related to your total wealth management. We share this important information with you through our weekly blog, so you can count on being one of the first to know. To ensure that you and your friends are always on top of current financial trends and insights, please consider subscribing to our email list to get new blogs sent directly to your inbox.  

 Do you have a friend you want to add to our email list or just having trouble receiving our emails? Since our blogs are sent out through a third party, Robly, and not our normal Outlook email, it’s possible you may not be currently receiving our weekly blog posts. Check out these troubleshooting tips below:

 How to get added to the blog list:

 This is the most simple and straightforward of all our troubleshooting tips. If you want to receive new blog posts from us in your inbox, simply email us with the email address you would like added and we’ll add you to our list. It’s that easy! Financial knowledge is just an email away.

 What to do if you’re not receiving our blogs:

 If you’ve already joined our email list and suddenly stop receiving our weekly blog, there are a couple of different solutions to this problem.

 Our emails may be winding up in your spam folder unintentionally. Luckily, there’s an easy fix for this! Just select the email within your spam folder and mark it as “not spam.” For Gmail users, the solution to this problem can be seen in the screenshot below. Once an email is marked as “not spam,” your email should recognize this as a trend and all future emails will be sent to your general inbox.

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Another solution is to just add the following domain names to your approved senders list within your email:

 @dwmgmt.com

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 You can also add each DWM team member’s email address to your address book in your email to ensure that our emails are among your approved senders list:

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 If your email is a company email, you may need your company to add the domains to their list of safe senders to effectively “whitelist” the DWM domain names. Whitelisting means that the sending server will be recognized by the receiving server, so the emails will be allowed to come through. Give your company this list of IP addresses to whitelist and avoid missing emails in the future:

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 How to remove yourself from our email list:

 In the rare event that you dislike weekly financial updates, you can unsubscribe from our email list by clicking the “Unsubscribe” button at the bottom of every blog email.

 As always, should you have any questions or concerns regarding access to our blog or any of our email communications, please never hesitate to reach out to us at any time via email, phone or even “snail” mail.

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The Mighty Dollar

Written by Ginny Wilson.

Starbucks cupsWith tax cuts and tax returns on everyone’s minds, we think it is a good time to look closely at our favorite currency!  We might call it “dough”, “bread” or “cheddar”, we have “bean”-counters to keep track of it and we use simple, gastronomic valuations, like the Big Mac Index, to compare it to its peers.  Thinking about the US dollar and its’ value might just make you hungry!   The dollars’ worth is determined by the foreign exchange market, but investors and economists alike are always looking for ways to value the currencies and look for explanations or even monetary conspiracies, to explain currency fluctuations.

In 1986, The Economist came out with the Big Mac Index as a simple way to discuss exchange rates and purchasing-power parity (PPP), which compares the amount of currency needed to buy the same item in different countries, in this case a Big Mac. The Wall Street Journal came up with their own modernized version of this same idea with their Latte Index, which compares the price of a Starbucks tall latte in cities around the world.  For example, in New York City, the WSJ reporter could buy a tall latte at Starbucks for $3.45.  Other WSJ reporters would need to spend $5.76 in Zurich, $4.22 in Shanghai, $3.40 in Berlin (almost the same as the U.S.), $2.84 in London and $1.53 in Cairo.  These simple comparisons of the price of a good that is available in many countries can be an indicator of whether foreign currencies are over-valued or under-valued relative to the US dollar. 

 There are some criticisms of these simple tools.  Costs of these products can depend on local wages or rents, which are generally more expensive in richer countries and can add to the cost of the product.  The price for a Starbucks Latte can even fluctuate amongst American cities or specific locations, like airports, which may have higher rents.  And adjusting these indices for GDP will change the data and perhaps improve their accuracy.  Some also have pointed to the ingredients in these particular items as causing value differences.  McDonald’s, for example, must use strictly British beef in the U.K.  Starbucks can be a little more consistent, as coffee beans are not generally grown in most of the countries they operate in, so the imported price is pretty standard.

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What these indices don’t tell us about the currency market is why fluctuations occur.  For example, why has the U.S. dollar hit a recent three-year low?  According to an article in yesterday’s WSJ, one simple explanation for a weakened dollar is that “the economies in the rest of the world are finally growing again, so their currencies are strengthening. The U.S. economy isn’t improving as fast—because it was stronger to start with—so the dollar’s falling.”  The Chinese yuan has gained 3.8% so far in January after gaining 6.7% in 2017, which has the officials at the People’s Bank of China concerned about their exports.  President Trump and the U.S. have been critical of any Chinese central bank policies that would devalue the Chinese currency and cheapen goods coming into the U.S.  This trade friction complicates China’s management of their currency, particularly as they attempt to make the yuan a more market-driven currency.

Adding to the currency gap with China and the drop in US currency values overall were comments made last week by the U.S. Treasury Secretary signaling Administration support for a weaker U.S. dollar as being “good for trade.”   Such overt comments are traditionally avoided by the Treasury Department, but may spotlight the Administration goals to reduce the trade deficit and allow currencies to float freely.  President Trump reiterated his stance on trade imbalances in his State of the Union address, pledging to “fix bad trade deals” and that he expects trade deals to be “fair” and “reciprocal”.  Another factor that may weaken the dollar is the belief that 2018 will bring a tightening of monetary policy by the international banks.  Some banks, like the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, have already raised rates.

A weaker dollar makes U.S. goods cheaper to foreign markets, but there is a risk of undermining confidence in an array of U.S. assets, like the U.S. Treasury market.  As the WSJ article explained, as the new tax law expands the federal budget deficit, the government will look to sell the debt to foreign investors.  Those investors may demand higher rates to compensate for the risks of a weaker currency and those costs could fall onto the U.S. taxpayers.

So, we should think about our American dollar today and perhaps look at our paychecks or tax returns to see what has changed.  At DWM, we are always careful to think about each and every one of your dollars – the ones you invest, the ones you save, the ones you spend and the ones you pay in tax.  Using the simple Big Mac or Starbucks Latte indices might help us remember all the factors that go into the value of a dollar around the world.  For me, I certainly prefer to imagine buying a tall latte in Zurich over a Big Mac!   

 

 

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