Our Blog

DWM is committed to learning for its team, clients and friends. In this changing world, it’s extremely important to stay current in all areas impacting your financial future.

We encourage all of team members to “drill down” on current topics important to you and contribute to our weekly blogs.  Questions from our clients and their families are often featured in our blogs.  

Financial literacy for clients and their families is very important to us.  We generally hold an annual wealth management seminar for all of our clients.  We encourage regular, at least semi-annual, meetings in person with our clients to review family updates, progress on financial goals, asset allocation and performance of investments.  We’re happy to assist younger members of the family as part of our total wealth management program.

Here’s our latest blog:

 

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Total Eclipse of the Sun

Written by Ginny Wilson.

SolarEclipse-1200x800We all spend a lot of time thinking about our Sun.  In the summer, we want to know if clouds or rain will obscure the Sun’s heat and brilliance and perhaps impact our plan for outdoor activities.  We must think about the Sun’s intensity by protecting our skin and our eyes from the powerful UV rays with sunscreen, protective clothing and eyewear.  Sunrise and sunset mark the ebb and flow in our days with beautiful atmospheric displays.  The Sun, as we all know, keeps us alive on this planet!

On August 21st, our moon will pass between the earth and the Sun, throwing shade across a wide path of the United States that includes Charleston, SC.  Temperatures will drop, the sky will darken and animals will be confused about what to do. The Great American Eclipse of 2017 will begin in the Charleston area with the first phase at 1:17 pm, will hit the peak or “totality “ period at 2:46 pm and will finally end around 4:10 pm.  This is the first total solar eclipse to occur in the US since 1979 and is the biggest astronomical event that America has seen in years.

There are five stages to a solar eclipse and there are some interesting features to look for during each phase, for those of you getting ready to participate.  Here are the 5 phases:

1. Partial eclipse begins (1st contact): The Moon starts becoming visible over the Sun's disk. The Sun looks as if a bite has been taken from it.

2. Total eclipse begins (2nd contact): The entire disk of the Sun is covered by the Moon. Observers in the path of the Moon's umbra, or shadow, may be able to see Baily's beads and the diamond ring effect, just before totality.  Baily’s beads are the outer edges of the Sun’s corona peeking out from behind the moon and the diamond ring effect occurs when one last spot of the Sun shines like a diamond on a ring before being obscured.

3. Totality and maximum eclipse: The Moon completely covers the disk of the Sun. Only the Sun's corona, or outer ring, is visible. This is the most dramatic stage of a total solar eclipse. At this time, the sky goes dark, temperatures can fall, and birds and animals often go quiet. The midpoint of time of totality is known as the maximum point of the eclipse. Observers in the path of the Moon's umbra may be able to see Baily's beads and the diamond ring effect, just after totality ends.

4. Total eclipse ends (3rd contact): The Moon starts moving away, and the Sun reappears.

5. Partial eclipse ends (4th contact): The Moon stops overlapping the Sun's disk. The eclipse ends at this stage in this location.

Historically, solar eclipses have been significant events and have been recorded dating back to 5,000 BC.  There are writings of mathematical predictions of eclipses from ancient Greece, Babylon and China.  Rulers and leaders often used the predictions of astronomical events to gain power or to offer reassurance to a fearful population.  George Washington was grateful for a heads up about a coming solar eclipse prior to a battle in 1777 so he could alleviate any superstitions that his troops may have.  And scientists have used the opportunity of an eclipse to study the Sun, measure distances and features in the universe and learn about the Earth’s atmosphere.  The discovery of hydrogen can be credited to a solar eclipse and a solar eclipse in 1919 provided observational data for Einstein’s theory of general relativity.  This year, NASA has set up many sites within the path of the eclipse to monitor, measure and capture data to further their knowledge.  There is much to be learned from studying these phenomena. 

As we have seen throughout history, the science of astronomy can be used to predict and measure certain events and occurrences with regularity.  Wouldn’t it be nice if there could be more certainty in predicting the ups and downs of the stock market?  One study found that stocks around the world rise on sunnier days!  However, no one can predict the future.  We need to focus on what we can control, including an appropriate asset allocation, diversification and keeping costs low.  That is why actively managed funds underperform the benchmarks and why even the geniuses like Warren Buffet recommend using passive index funds.  At DWM, we think you should stick with your investing plan and not look for the latest fads or trends or even astronomical events to impact your strategy.

We hope that NASA and other scientists learn some spectacular new things from this years’ eclipse.  Here in Charleston, we will be avid, yet passive spectators to the historical occurrence and will use our ISO certified eclipse glasses to watch the once-in-a-lifetime event unfold.   Happy eclipse watching!

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Let’s All Work to Grow Human Capital!

Written by Les Detterbeck.

lets grow human capitalYour biggest financial asset may be your human capital.  Yes, perhaps even more important than your investment portfolio, house, real estate and other assets.  Simply put, human capital refers to the abilities and qualities of people that make them productive.  There are many factors that contribute to human capital.  Knowledge is the most important, but discipline, punctuality, willingness to work hard, personal values and the state of one’s health are among the other factors.

Generally, younger people will have more human capital than financial capital.  In an economic sense, their human capital is the net present value of their lifetime earnings.  In a larger sense, human capital is our ability to add value to others and improve their lives and, by doing so, improve our own.  Decisions young people make early on regarding their education, their careers, their job choices, life partner choice, etc. will all have huge impacts on their eventual financial capital and human capital. Key questions they should answer include “What is your passion?” “When are you at your best?” and “What allows you to engage your human capital at the highest level?”   

Historically, the cross-over point where financial capital starts to exceed human capital occurs when one is in their 50s.  However, with people living longer or pursuing “encore” careers, human capital may remain a significant personal asset for octogenarians and beyond.  A perfect example is 86 year old Warren Buffet who is committed to growing human capital:  “Investing in yourself is the best thing you can do.  Anything that improves your own talents cannot be taxed or taken away from you.”  Regardless of your age, human capital is like a garden, you need to continually give it your time and effort in order for it to grow.

For decades after WWII, the G.I. bill and the American economy pushed workers to build skills and maximize their economic potential.  This was arguably the greatest period of shared prosperity in the history of capitalism.  Last week’s Economist featured an article about University of Chicago Nobel Prize winner Gary Becker’s concept of human capital. Dr. Becker found that 25% of the rise in per-person incomes from 1929 to 1982 in the U.S. was because of increases in schooling.  Other components included on-the-job training and better health.  Dr. Becker was fond of pointing to Asian economics, such as South Korea and Taiwan, with few natural resources, who have invested in human capital by building up their education systems.  There is no debate that well-educated populations have greater incomes and broader social gains. There is a debate over whether the government should supply the education or students should bear the cost; yet both will receive the rewards.

Dr. Becker also wrote about “good inequality” and “bad inequality.”  Higher earnings for doctors, scientists and computer programmers, for example, help motivate students to push harder and achieve top paying jobs.  On the other hand, Dr. Becker wrote, when inequality becomes too extreme, the schooling and even the health of children from poor families suffers, with parents unable to adequately provide for them.  Inequality of this sort “depresses human capital, leaving society worse off.”

Certainly, many, if not most, of our DWM blog readers are committed to increasing and using their human capital to benefit themselves and others.  But, there are many Americans who do not or cannot.  Some are in occupations that have been hit hard by technological changes, others are in declining industries, others have limited education, and others have little opportunity.  As a result, there are lots of unhappy people due to this huge current gap between full human capital and employed human capital.  Can you imagine our country where the vast majority of our 323 million people were increasing their human capital and using it to benefit themselves and society?  Can you imagine an annual economic growth rate of GDP of 5-10%, like it was in the 60s and 70s, compared to the 2% it is currently?  Can you imagine hundreds of millions of Americans happy with their shared prosperity and with optimism for the future? 

Let’s make growing human capital a lifetime commitment. And, let’s also commit to using our human capital to help others grow theirs.  It’s up to each of us. Mahatma Gandhi put it so well: “You must be the change you wish to see in the world.”

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Next on the Agenda: Income Tax

Written by Les Detterbeck.

TAX REFORM 3Washington is moving on to tax reform. Earlier this week, the Senate Republicans made it clear that they want to focus on tax overhaul and critical fiscal legislation.  Republicans and Democrats have already outlined their plans.  Income taxes have always been a very important and often contentious subject. Before we review the key issues, let’s step back and review tax policy generally.

I remember my first tax class in Champaign, Illinois over 50 years ago.  We learned that income tax policy was more than simply raising money.  Taxes have always been an instrument of economic and social policy for the government, as well.

Income taxes became a permanent part of life in America with the passage of the 16th Amendment in 1913.  The first tax amount was 1% on net personal incomes above $3,000 with a surtax of 6% on incomes above $500,000 (that’s about $9 million of income in today’s dollars).  By 1918, at the end of WWI, the top rate was 77% (for incomes over $1 million).  During the Great Depression, the top marginal tax rate was 63% and rose to 94% during WWII.  The top rate was lowered to 50% in 1982 and eventually 28% in 1988.  It slowly increased to 40% in 2000, was reduced again from 2003 to 2012 and now is back at 40%. Corporate tax rates are 35% nominally, though the effective rate for corporations is between 20% and 25%.

Changes in the tax structure can influence economic activity.  For example, take the deduction for home mortgage interest.  If that deduction were eliminated, the housing market would most likely feel a big hit and economic growth, at least temporarily, would likely decline.  In addition, an argument is often made that tax cuts raise growth.  Evidence shows it’s not that simple.  Tax cuts can improve incentives to work, save and invest for workers, however, they may subsidize old capital that may undermine incentives for new activity and growth.  And, if tax cuts are not accompanied by spending cuts or increased economic growth, then the result is larger federal budget deficits.

Our income tax system is a “progressive” system.  That means that the tax rate goes up as the taxable amount increases.  It is based on a household’s ability to pay.  It is, in part, a redistribution of wealth as it increases the tax burden on higher income families and reduces it on lower income families.  In theory, a progressive tax promotes the greater social good and more overall happiness.  Critics would say that those who earn more are penalized by a progressive tax.

So, with that background, let’s look at some of the key issues.

The Republicans and the White House outlined their principles last Thursday:

  • Make taxes simpler, fairer, and lower for American families
  • Reduce tax rates for all American businesses
  • Encourage companies to bring back profits held abroad
  • Allow “unprecedented” capital expensing
  • Tax cuts would be short-term and expire in 10 years (and could be passed through “reconciliation” procedures by a simple majority)
  • The earlier proposed border adjustment tax on imports has been removed

Also this week, Senate Democrats indicated an interest in working with Republicans if three key conditions are met:

  • No cuts for the top 1% of households
  • No deficit-financed tax cuts
  • No use of fast-track procedures known as reconciliation

The last big tax reform was 1986.  It was a bipartisan bill with sweeping changes.  Its goals were to simplify the tax code, broaden the tax base and eliminate many tax shelters.  It was designed to be tax-revenue neutral.  The tax cuts for individuals were offset by eliminating $60 billion annually in tax loopholes and shifting $24 billion of the tax burden from individuals to corporations.  It needed bipartisan support because these were permanent changes requiring a 60% majority vote.

With all that in mind, sit back, relax and follow what comes out of Washington in the next few months. It will be interesting to watch how everything plays out for tax reform, the next very important piece of proposed legislation.

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