Supreme Court Overturns Ban on Sports Gambling

NBA slot machine

On Monday, the Supreme Court struck down the 1992 federal law that said states couldn’t “sponsor, advertise, promote, license or authorize” sports gambling. The ruling in Murphy vs. NCAA agreed with New Jersey that the law was an intrusion into states’ rights to regulate activity within their borders. NJ had waged a six-year battle against the NCAA, NBA, NFL, MLB and NHL to allow sports betting. NJ will now join Nevada as the two states with legalized gambling. More will certainly follow. Illinois and South Carolina have already introduced bills and are moving towards legalization.

The states, the leagues and lots of others are all licking their chops to participate. The American Gaming Association estimates that $150 billion is wagered every year on illegal bets. Now, sports gambling could become more widespread, more systematic with an even larger market. Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, believes that the overall value of sports franchises has doubled overnight. “It will increase interest in the arena or stadium, it will increase the viewership for customers online, and help traditional television networks.”

The NBA has discussed with state officials what it calls an “integrity fee” of 1% on all betting. The integrity fee would be needed, in part, to pay for more assistance to league officials to keep the league honest, thus policing players and coaches so that games are not “thrown” to win bets. MLB has proposed a .25% integrity fee. Ted Leonsis, owner of both the Washington Capitals and Wizards, said that the sport franchises need to be paid “equitably” for the content and “intellectual property” they provide to television.

Pennsylvania last year passed legislation to allow sports betting, which included a 36% tax on sports betting revenue. Nevada’s rate is 6.75%. While some states may resist on moral grounds (Utah’s anti-gambling stance is written into its constitution), most will jump on the bandwagon as soon as possible. It has been estimated that $245 billion in legalized sports betting could generate $16 billion in additional state tax income.

Sports data companies, like Sportradar and gambling companies, like MGM and Caesars Entertainment, are hoping to cash in. The betting public can now come out of the “underground” market. Legal bookmakers should do well-Nevada sportsbooks haven’t had a losing month since 2013.

And what about the players and their salaries? If the NBA received a 1% fee, under the current union contract, half of that would be owed to the players. So, if $50 billion of NBA related sports betting produced a $500 million “bonus”, half of that would go to the players. And, this extra money might raise the salary cap and cause crazy gyrations with many top players changing teams.

However, there’s only so much money to go around. Last year, Nevada’s sportsbooks had a 5% profit margin, according to the state’s gaming board. A 1% “integrity fee” would represent 20% of the profit. With everyone fighting for their piece of the pie, legalized gambling may not take off as quickly as expected.

Joe Asher, chief executive of William Hill US, part of a major British sports betting operation, cautions that tax rates and league fees could add to the complexities: “It’s not going to be easy to move customers from the black market into the legal market.” Time will tell.

Understanding Risk and Reward

Electronic Discovery Risk Assessment3-1024x664Mark Twain once said “There are three kinds of lies:  lies, damned lies and statistics”.  We are inundated nowadays with statistics.  Statistics are a scientific method for collecting and analyzing data in order to make some conclusion from them.  Very valuable indeed, though not a crystal ball by any means. 

When you study investment management, you must conquer the statistical formulas and concepts that attempt to measure portfolio risk in relation to the many variables that can affect one’s investment returns.  In the context of investing, higher returns are the reward for taking on this investment risk – there is a trade-off – the investments that usually provide the highest returns can also expose your portfolio to the largest potential losses.  On the other hand, more conservative investments will likely protect your principal, but also not grow it as much. 

Managing this risk is a fundamental responsibility for an investment advisor, like DWM.  You cannot eliminate investment risk. But two basic investment strategies can help manage both systemic risk (risk affecting the economy as a whole) and non-systemic risk (risks that affect a small part of the economy, or even a single company).

  • Asset Allocation. By including different asset classes in your portfolio (for example equities, fixed income, alternatives and cash), you increase the probability that some of your investments will provide satisfactory returns even if others are flat or losing value. Put another way, you’re reducing the risk of major losses that can result from over-emphasizing a single asset class, however resilient you might expect that class to be.
  • Diversification. When you diversify, you divide the money you’ve allocated to a particular asset class, such as equities, among asset styles of investments that belong to that asset class. Diversification, with its emphasis on variety, allows you to spread you assets around. In short, you don’t put all your investment eggs in one basket.

However, evaluating the best investment strategy for you personally is more subjective and can’t as easily be answered with statistics!  Investment advisors universally will try to quantify your willingness to lose money in your quest to achieve your goals. No one wants to lose money, but some investors may be willing and able to allow more risk in their portfolio, while others want to make sure they protect it as well as they can.  In other words, risk is the cost we accept for the chance to increase our returns.

At DWM, when our clients first come in, we ask them to complete a “risk tolerance questionnaire”.  This helps us understand some of the client’s feelings about investing, what their experiences have been in the past and what their expectations are for the future.  We also spend a considerable amount of time getting to know our clients and understanding what their goals are and what their current and future financial picture might look like.  With this information in mind, we can then establish an asset allocation for each client’s portfolio.  We customize the allocation to reflect what we know about them, looking at both their emotional tolerance for risk, as well as their financial capacity to take on that risk.  We also evaluate this risk tolerance level frequently to account for any changes to our clients’ feelings, aspirations or necessities.  While we use the risk tolerance questionnaire to start the conversation, it is our understanding of our client that allows us to fine tune the recommended allocation strategy.

A Wall Street Journal article challenged how clients feel about their own risk tolerance and suggested that being afraid of market volatility tends to keep investors in a misleading vacuum.  The article suggests that investors must also consider the risk of not meeting their goals and, that by taking this into account, the investor’s risk tolerance might be quite different.

The WSJ writer surveyed investors from 23 countries asking this question:

“Suppose that you are given an opportunity to replace your current portfolio with a new portfolio.  The new portfolio has a 50-50 chance to increase your standard of living by 50% during your lifetime.  However, the new portfolio also has a 50-50 chance to reduce your standard of living by X% during your lifetime.  What is the maximum % reduction in standard of living you are willing to accept?” Americans, on average, says the article, are willing to accept a 12.65% reduction in their standard of living for a 50-50 chance at a 50% increase.   How might you answer that question?

So, bottom line, it is the responsibility of your advisor, like DWM, to encourage you to choose a portfolio allocation based on reasonable expectations and goals.  However, understanding your own risk tolerance and seeing the big picture of your investment strategy is also your responsibility.  Our recommendations are intended to be held for the long-term and adhered to consistently through market up and downs.  We know that disciplined and diversified investing is the strategy that works best for every allocation!

We want all of our clients to have portfolios that give them the best chance to achieve their financial aspirations without risking large losses that might harm those chances.  Through risk tolerance tools and in-depth conversations, we get to know our clients very well, so we can help them make the right choice.  After all, our clients are not just numbers to us!