At 80, “Successful Ager” Jack Nicklaus Remains As Relevant As Ever

Golfing great Jack Nicklaus turned 80 last week. His drives aren’t as long anymore- Gary Player can now outdrive him.  Jack stepped away in 2018 from day-to-day operations of his companies which build golf courses all over the world.  You might think Mr. Nicklaus is slowing down.  But to hear Jack tell it, he got rid of the things he was tired of doing and is focusing on all the activities he likes; including public speaking engagements, occasional golf exhibitions, course design and fundraising with his wife.

Nicklaus started designing courses in 1969.  He’s completed over 300. He’s become a grandfather to the “kids” on the PGA tour such as Rickie Fowler and Justin Thomas. Rory McIlroy says that Nicklaus “has the best advice on how to play golf- not how to swing but how to play the game.”  Jack’s wife of 60 years, Barbara, is chair of the Nicklaus Children’s Health Care Foundation and together they have raised over $50 million for pediatric care in Ohio and Florida.  They just pledged to raise another $100 million over the next five years.  Yes, Jack Nicklaus remains relevant as ever and, by any definition, is successfully aging.

Much has changed since Social Security was started in 1935.  Back then, the average life expectancy was 61 years old.  In 1947, the poet Dylan Thomas encouraged the elderly: “Do not go gentle into that good night, old age should burn and rage at close of day.” It’s starting to happen. With greater longevity and medical advances, it’s no surprise that the term “successful aging” has grown in popularity over the past few decades.  Back in 1987, John Wallis Rowe and Robert Kahn published a book entitled “Successful Aging.”  They felt there were three key factors: 1) being free of disability or disease, 2) having high cognitive and physical abilities, and 3) interacting with others in meaningful ways.

Now comes a new NYT bestseller; Dr. Daniel Levitin’s “Successful Aging; a neuroscientist explores the power and potential of our lives.”  Today more people who are in the last quarter of their lives are engaged with life as much as they’ve ever been, immersed in social interactions, spiritual pursuits, hiking and nature, charitable work and even starting new professional projects.  Dr. Levitin remarks:  “They may look old, but they feel like the same people they were 50 years ago and this amazes them.”

Successful aging involves focusing on what is important to you, and being able to do what you want to do in old age. While successful aging may be one way to describe how well we age, the concept of meaningful aging might be another important way to consider how to age well.   Certainly, some of our faculties may have slowed, yet “seniors” are finding strength in compensatory mechanisms that have kicked in – positive changes in mood and outlook, punctuated by the exceptional benefits of experience.  Baby boomers and their elders may process information more slowly than younger generations but they can intuitively synthesize a lifetime of information and make smarter decisions based on decades of learning, often from their mistakes.

Combining recent developments in neuroscience and psychology, “Successful Aging” presents a novel approach to how we think about our final decades. The book demonstrates that aging is not simply a period of decay but a unique time, like infancy or adolescence, which brings forth its own demands, surprises and happiness.

Until about thirty years ago, older people in the workforce were forced/encouraged to retire; a tremendous economic and creative loss.  However, since the 1990s, the tide has been turning for seniors. Employers and organizations are awakening to the eastern idea that the elderly may not only be of some value but may provide superior enhancements to a group.   New medical advances and positive lifestyle changes can help us to find enhanced fulfillment that previous generations may not have been able to do.

Research now shows, for example, that fending off Alzheimer’s disease involves five key components:  1) a diet rich in vegetables, 2) moderate physical exercise, 3) brain training exercise, 4) good sleep hygiene, and 5) an appropriate regimen of supplements.  In addition, research shows that social stress can lead to a compromised immune system. We don’t need to be victims; we just need to take advantage of modern medicine and make some lifestyle changes.

When older people look back on their lives and are asked to pinpoint the age at which they were the happiest, what do you think they say? The age that comes up most often, according to Dr. Levitin, as the happiest time in one’s life is 82. And, that number is rising.

At DWM, we work with clients from 0 to 96.  As total wealth managers, we understand life cycle planning, financial and investment strategies and proactively provide value-added services.  Of course, we focus on making sure our clients have enough money for their entire lives.  In addition, and as important, we pay particular attention to helping them experience the best life possible with the money they have.  Their fulfillment is our fulfillment. Their happiness is our happiness.

Jack Nicklaus’s longtime PR man Scott Tolley says Jack still only operates at two speeds, “go and giddy-up.”  Gary Player calls retirement a death warrant.  It doesn’t need to be.  Successful aging is getting easier and more fun and fulfilling.  C’mon baby boomers- let’s giddy-up.

https://dwmgmt.com/

Breaking News- How the SECURE Act Will Impact Retirement Plans

Happy New Year!! We hope everyone had a great holiday. Everyone at DWM certainly did. In late December, Congress’s year-end spending package was signed into law and it included the SECURE Act which has made some significant changes to retirement plans. It’s a mixed bag. Major items impacted are 1) “stretching rules” for IRAs, including Roth IRAs, inherited by non-spouse beneficiaries 2) age limits for IRA contributions and 3) Required Beginning Date (“RBD”) for Required Minimum Distributions (“RMD”) for retirees.

In the past, owners of IRAs and Roth IRAs could leave them to much younger heirs, including grandchildren, who could “stretch” the IRA by taking out the minimum distribution, typically until they were 85 years. This was particularly valuable for Roth IRAs, where the income tax had already been paid and the account continued to grow tax-free for 50 years or more. For example, a grandchild who received a $100,000 Roth IRA from her deceased grandparent at age 30, who invested the money and earned 6% annually and withdrew only the required amount each year, could eventually receive $741,000 in distributions over 55 years, all tax-free. The same applied to IRAs, except there would be taxes to be paid on the distributions each year. This was a great wealth succession strategy.

Now, the “Big Stretch” is gone. The distribution period has been reduced generally to 10 years for non-spouse beneficiaries. Surviving spouses are still covered by the old rules. However, a non-spouse IRA or Roth IRA heir can postpone any distributions until the end of the 10 years to maximize tax-free or tax-deferred growth. A surviving spouse who inherits a Roth IRA can put the account in his or her name, not take any distributions in their lifetime and then leave the accounts to younger heirs who get a 10 year stretch.

The Big Stretch is gone but Roth conversions can still make lots of sense, in the right circumstances. Here’s a real life example of a program we are just putting into place with clients. A Roth conversion is where you voluntarily move all or a portion of an IRA to a Roth account and pay income tax on the amount transferred. The Roth account is tax-free thereafter. Over a 10 year period one of our client couples is converting $1 million of traditional “pre-tax” IRA money to Roth. We do an installment Roth conversion each year, with larger amounts in the beginning. At the end of the conversion, using a 6% annual investment growth, their Roth accounts total $2 million. It has cost about $250,000 of federal tax (they live in a state with no income tax) to do the conversion. At that point, our clients are 70 years old. They have no RMD requirements on their Roth accounts and, assuming the second to die of the couple passes away at 95 years of age, the $2 million would have grown to $8.5 million over those 25 years. After that, the beneficiaries can allow the money to grow for 10 more years under the new rules and then take tax-free distributions on the roughly $15 million of Roth money. The effective tax rate on the conversion and growth was less than 2% tax ($1 million of IRA money eventually became $15 million of Roth money). Conversions don’t work for everyone but for the right situation, it is a key part of the legacy and wealth succession strategy, even without the Big Stretch.

Under the SECURE ACT, savers can continue to make contributions to a Traditional IRA past the age of 70 ½ (the age limit of 70 ½ has been repealed). Roth contributions were never subject to an age limit. They still have to meet the requirements of earned income to make contributions.

Lastly, starting dates, or RBDs, have been revised from 70 ½ to age 72 for RMDs. Obviously, people are living longer and many would prefer to start their RMDs later. Again, traditional IRAs have RMDs so that the IRS can finally start collecting tax on the money. The initial withdrawal rate is 3.6% and the withdrawal rate increases each year to 16% at age 100, for example. Roth IRAs have no RMDs for owners and their spouses. Now, if the owner reaches 70 ½ after 12/31/19, the first RMD year is the year in which the owner reaches 72. The RBD is April 1 of the year that follows the year in which the owner reaches 72 ½. Here’s an example, IRA owner was born in April, 1950. She will be 70 ½ in October, 2020 (after 12/31/19). So, she can take his first RMD either in 2022 or by April, 2023 (under the old rules she would have had a RBD of 2020 or April 2021.) However, if the first RMD is taken in April 2023, then the 2023 RMD for her will be taken that year as well. Doubling up may not be advantageous, as it may push you into a higher tax bracket.

Those are the key issues in the SECURE ACT. If you have any questions, please let us know. We love working with retirement plans, traditional IRAs and particularly Roth IRAs. Even with the new changes in the SECURE Act, there are still some great planning opportunities available.

https://dwmgmt.com/

The “Nastiest, Hardest Problem” in Retirement

Running out of money in retirement is, according to Nobel Prize winning economist William Sharpe, the “nastiest, hardest problem” in retirement. Professor Sharpe has spent his career thinking about risk. His work on the Capital Asset Pricing Model and systemic risk produced in 1966 the Sharpe ratio, which measures risk-adjusted returns. Now, he’s tackling a much broader subject, extremely important to everyone, about possibly outliving your money in retirement. Similar to the Monte Carlo analysis that DWM uses to provide a probability of success for your financial plan, Dr. Sharpe created a computer program with 100,000 retirement-income scenarios to calculate the probability of not running out of money. He’s published a free 730 page e-book “Retirement Income Scenario Matrices.”

In short, there are three key variables that impact your retirement income; your spending, your investment returns and your eventual age (when your plan “ends.”)

The first variable, spending, is the one you can most control. Your spending before retirement will generally determine how much money you accumulate while working. What you don’t spend becomes savings/investments and these annual additions and their appreciation increase your investment portfolio overtime. Your spending in retirement will determine how much you need to withdraw from your investment pot. As your earnings during the working years increase, you need to save a larger percentage of your income in order to accumulate an investment pot at retirement time that will support the lifestyle you’ve created. Withdrawals from your investment portfolio during retirement typically should not exceed 4% of the total investment pot. It’s an easy calculation. For example, if you determine you will need to withdraw $100,000 from the portfolio in your first year of retirement, you’ll need a portfolio of $2.5 million.

Now let’s look at investment returns. No one can predict the future. Historically, we know there is a relationship between inflation, asset allocation and returns. Hypothetically, let’s assume that a diversified fixed income portfolio over the long term would produce a return of 1% above inflation. The return above inflation is called the “real return.” Equities, because of their higher risk, have earned an “equity risk premium” of roughly 3 to 7% above the inflation rate over the long term. Again, hypothetically, let’s assume that in the long-run equities earn 5% above inflation. Alternatives have a shorter historical track record but are designed to produce returns comparable to fixed income returns over time. Therefore, a portfolio with 50% fixed income holdings and 50% equity holdings might hypothetically produce a 3% real return over time. If long-term inflation is expected to be 2.5%, the nominal return could be expected to be 5.5%. A larger allocation to equities will likely produce a larger real return and a smaller (more defensive) allocation of equities would likely produce a smaller real return.

Lastly, longevity. Certainly, we can look at actuarial tables, such as those used by insurance companies and social security, to calculate life expectancy. These charts show that a male age 60 might be expected to live another 22 years; a female age 60, another 25 years. However, we suggest you not use these actuarial tables. Harvard Professor David Sinclair‘s “Lifespan- Why we Age- and Why We Don’t Have To” shows that the increases in technology and medicine are going to give those individuals who want to live a longer and healthier life the opportunity to do so. It is very possible that many of our clients and friends will live a healthy 100 plus years and younger generations, such as millennials and Gen Z, may live to 110 or longer. Accordingly, we suggest using an eventual age of at least 100 when doing your financial planning.

Dr. Sharpe’s final section in the book is about advice. He indicates that many people will need help. He outlines the “ideal financial advisor” and compares a “good financial advisor” to a “fine family doctor” who has “deep scientific knowledge, can assess client needs, habits and willpower and is able to provide scientific diagnoses and can communicate results to the client in simple terms so that the best treatments can be applied.” We like the analogy, we use it all the time.

Yes, running out of money in retirement would be a nasty, hard problem. It’s doesn’t have to be that way. You need a solid financial plan based on realistic values for investment returns and longevity. You also need to focus on spending and savings.   And, you might need some help from a “good financial advisor” that operates like a “fine family doctor,” a firm like DWM.

https://dwmgmt.com/

Tick, Tock…is it Time for Your Required Minimum Distribution (RMD)?

“Time flies” was a recent quote that I had from a client.  Remember a long time ago…putting money aside in your retirement accounts, perhaps at work in a qualified traditional 401(k) or to an individual retirement account (IRA)?  It’s easy to ‘forget’ about it because, it was after all, meant to be used many years down the road.  It would be nice to keep your retirement funds indefinitely; unfortunately, that can’t happen, as the government wants to eventually collect the tax revenue from years of tax deferred contributions and growth.

In general, once you reach the age of 70 ½, per the IRS, many of those qualified accounts are subject to a Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) and you must begin withdrawing that minimum amount of money by April 1 of the year following the year that you turn 70 1/2.  Of course, there are a few exceptions with regards to qualified accounts, but as a rule, when you reach 70 ½, you must begin taking money from those accounts per IRS guidelines if you hold a traditional 401(k), profit sharing, 403(b) or other defined contribution plan, traditional IRA, Simple IRA, SEP IRA or Inherited IRA.  (Roth IRA withdrawals are deferred until the death of the owner and his or her spouse).   Inherited IRAs are more complicated and handled with a few options available to the beneficiary, either by taking lifetime distributions or over a 5 year period.  The importance here, is to be aware that a distribution is needed.  Another word of caution…In some cases, your defined contribution plan may or may not allow you to wait until the year you retire before taking the first distribution, so a review of the terms of the plan is necessary.  In contrast, if you are more than a 5% owner of the business sponsoring the plan, you are not exempt from delaying the first distribution; you must take the withdrawal beginning at age 70 1/2, regardless if you are still working.

The formula for determining the amount that must be taken is calculated using several factors.  Basically, your age and account value determine the amount you must withdraw.  As such, the December 31 prior year value of the account must be known and, second, the IRS Tables in Publication 590-B, which provides a life expectancy factor for either single life expectancy or joint life and last survivor expectancy, needs to be referenced.  The Uniform Lifetime expectancy table would be referenced for unmarried owners and the Joint Life and Last Survivor expectancy table would be used for owners who have spouses that are more than 10 years younger and are sole beneficiaries.  It comes down to a simple equation: The account value as of December 31 of the prior year is divided by your life expectancy.  For most individuals, the first RMD amount will be roughly 4% of the account value and will increase in percentage each year.

It all begins with the first distribution, which will be triggered in the year in which an individual owning a qualified account turns 70 ½.  For example, John Doe, who has an IRA, and has a birthdate of May 1, 1949, will turn 70 ½ this year in 2019 on November 1.  A distribution will need to be made then after November 1, because he will have needed to attain the age of 70 ½ first.  Therefore, the distribution can be taken after November 1 (for 2019), and up until April 1 of the following year in 2020.

Once the first distribution is withdrawn, subsequent annual RMDs need to be taken for life, and are due by December 31.  In this case, John Doe will need to next take his 2020 distribution, using the same formula that determined his first distribution.  This will become a regular obligation of John’s each year.

So, we’ve talked about who, what, why and when, now let’s talk about the where.  Once the distribution amount is calculated, an individual can then choose where he or she would like that money to go.  Depending on circumstances, if the money is not needed for living expenses, it is advised to keep the money invested within one of your other non-qualified accounts such as a trust, individual or joint account, i.e. you can elect to make an internal journal to one of your other investment accounts.  Alternatively, if you have another thought for the money, you can have it moved to a personal bank account or mailed to your home.  Keep in mind that these distributions are taxed as ordinary income, thus, depending on your income situation, you may wish to have federal or state taxes withheld from the distribution.  At DWM, we can help our clients determine if, and what amount, to be withheld.  One exception is the qualified charitable distribution or QCD, which is briefly discussed next.

Another idea that may be a possibility for some individuals is for the distribution amount to be considered a qualified charitable distribution (QCD).  Instead of the money going into one of your accounts, a direct transfer of funds would be payable to a qualified charity.  There are certain requirements to determine whether you can make a QCD.  For starters, the charity must be a 501 (c)(3) and eligible to receive tax-deductible contributions, and, in order for a QCD to count towards your current year’s RMD, the funds must come out of your IRA by the December 31 deadline.  The real beauty about this strategy is that the QCD amount is not taxed as ordinary income.  You would simplyprovide the QCD acknowledgement receipt(s) along with your 1099R(s) to your accountant for the correct reporting on your tax return.

It may be pretty scary to know how quickly time flies, but with DWM by your side, we can take the scare out of the situation!

Your Choice- $1 Million or $5,000 per Month for Life?

Most of our readers will likely have to make that type of decision someday.  From our perspective, it’s a pretty easy answer.  As Cuba Gooding, Jr. famously told Tom Cruise in “Jerry Maguire”:  “Show me the money!!”

Yet, an article in the WSJ on Monday tried to make the decision sound really tough, with losers on both sides.  It would have you believe that many will suffer from either an “illusion of poverty” or an “illusion of wealth” and are likely going to experience a disappointing retirement.  Really?

Researcher Daniel Goodwin at Microsoft Research asked people how adequate they would feel if they have $1 million at the time they retired.  He used a seven-point system with one being “totally inadequate” and seven being “totally adequate.”  Then, he asked them to rate instead an income each month in retirement of $5,000.

In theory, the choices are similar based on pricing of annuities. If a 65 year old paid $1 million for a “single premium immediate annuity” they could receive payments of $5,000 each month for their life.  Actuarially, a 65 year-old is expected to live 18-20 years.  So, 19 years of monthly payments of $5,000 would be $1,140,000 and represent a 1.4% annual return on the investment.

Yet, believe it or not, many people, feel that $5,000 per month is more adequate than the $1 million lump sum.  Mr. Goldstein says that this group suffers from the “illusion of poverty.”  Apparently, these folks are “inclined to think about wealth in terms of monthly income” and don’t want the “burden” of a lump sum which could run out someday.  Hence, they dial down their expenses, eliminate any wants or wishes and make do on their $5,000 per month.

Mr. Goldstein then suggests that I and most people may suffer from the “illusion of wealth.”  He thinks that those selecting the lump sum, through a false sense of security, may spend too much and run out of money. In fact, the larger the lump sum, the more likely the “extra millions will lose their meaning.”  Really?  Do we all suffer from illusions, as Mr. Goldstein suggests?  Are we all on the road to an unsuccessful retirement regardless of our choices?  It certainly doesn’t have to be that way.

Perhaps I should contact Mr. Goldstein and invite him (and his wife) to go through the DWM Boot Camp.  First, we’d sit down and help them with their goal setting. We’d help them identify their needs, wants and wishes.  We’d look at their assets, health care costs, income taxes, expected inflation and investment returns, and insurance and estate matters.  Ultimately, we’d help them design a financial plan.

If Mr. Goldstein was under an “illusion of poverty,” we’d show him that his $5,000 per month program is a poor choice.  To begin with, his $5,000 per month would lose its purchasing power each month due to inflation.  With 3% inflation, after 15 years of retirement, his $5,000 would only buy $3,200 worth of goods in today’s dollars.  Second, if he did a “personal annuity” by simply taking the lump sum, investing it, earning 6%, e.g., and withdrawing the $5,000 per month, his family would still have the $1 million in principal when he passed away.  No need for an illusion of poverty here.

On the other hand, if Mr. Goldstein was under an “illusion of wealth”, the plan would help him identify his needs, wants and wishes and would have helped evaluate whether those potential expenses were affordable based upon his assets, expected investment returns and the other metrics.  We would have created numerous scenarios to ultimately result in a plan that was successful.  The plan would be stress tested for items that could negatively impact that plan and monitored and modified over time.  In short, the plan would not suffer from an illusion of poverty nor of wealth.

We’re glad contributors Shlomo Benartzi and Hal Hershfield ran the article Monday focusing on Mr. Goldstein’s findings. Retirement/financial independence planning is extremely important.   However, we don’t agree that it has to be a dire situation with poor choices, lots of suffering and disappointments.   It’s simple: take the lump sum and put together your realistic plan with a fee-only adviser like DWM and then have us help you monitor it for the changes that will undoubtedly occur in the future. You’ve worked hard for your money, the time will come to enjoy it. As Ginny’s blog http://www.dwmgmt.com/blogs/82-2017-02-07-23-30-00.html pointed out a few weeks ago, retirement/financial independence should be a time for “jubilation” not illusions or disappointments.  Proper planning with the right team can make that happen.

Feliz Jubilación!

We loved recently learning the word for retirement in Spanish …Jubilación!  It has a much more festive ring to it than “retirement” or even “financial independence”, as we say in the U.S.  In France, they use the word for retreat or “retraite” to define this time of life.  We don’t think many of us want to retreat, exactly, or hide away from anything!  And in England or Italy, they use a derivative of pension to describe a ‘retiree’ – ‘pensioner’ or ‘pensionato’, while in Spanish, you are a ‘jubilado’!  While they all mean the same general thing, we think this transition in life should be celebratory and warmly anticipated without any anxiety or trepidation.  As wealth managers at DWM, our goal is to make this transition so easy that you are indeed… jubilant!

So how can this transition truly be smooth and worry-free?  We do think that there are some things that you can do for yourself and then some things where your financial advocate, like DWM, can be very helpful.  Let’s start with some of the administrative items that come up at “a certain age”.  In fact, at DWM, we keep track of the important dates and significant milestones in our clients’ lives so we can remind them of the things that they will soon want to do.  For example, at age 50, you can start increasing your IRA or 401(k) contributions each year.  At 55, we like to discuss the pros and cons of long term care for you and your family and around age 60 or 62, we like to discuss Social Security strategies and help you with plans to start thinking about Medicare sign-ups.  We are always available to help analyze the proper benefits, help you schedule sign-ups or meet with professionals to assist you.  We also help with tax strategies and account transitions as you leave your job and need to understand your employer retirement benefits packages.  And when you hit 70 and it is almost time to start taking your required minimum distributions from your IRA’s, we are also here to guide you and manage this.  There are a few things that need to be done, but we like to educate our clients on the process and then help to guide them through it.

It is also important to make sure that your resources are protected and wisely invested to maximize your success in achieving your goals.  Assessing your resources and making a realistic plan will allow you to make the best choices for your future.  As wealth managers, we are always mindful of taxes, asset allocations, estate planning and risk management, as we look for ways to make the most of what you have.  We want to help you realize your goals with a comprehensive financial plan and a roadmap to success.  Money certainly isn’t everything, but having your finances in order and the details understood can make this transition much more worry-free and enjoyable.  Looking at all of your goals and assets with honest and realistic expectations will allow your plan to reach its highest potential.

The other question to ask yourself is what is your passion?  How would you like to spend your time, now that it is yours to spend?  Will you continue working?  Will you travel? Will you move to a new home?  Some people find that they can now spend their time doing exactly what they have always wanted to be doing, but just aren’t sure what that may be!  There are many things to investigate and you can now take some time to explore your options – whether it is continuing to work, volunteer, travel or take up a hobby that might have always interested you.  The goal here is to look at it as a wonderful opportunity where you embrace the change and get excited to find a happy “new normal”.  It may take some time and some patience to make this adjustment smoothly.  Staying healthy, active and engaged with others are all great tips to helping with the emotional transition.  You may have to adjust to your new identity and staying busy and connected with others can definitely support you through this process.

This should be a wonderful time in your life and we are here to help in any way we can as you move forward into “retirement”.  Just remember, you have earned the ability to celebrate – this is your lifetime achievement award!   As your financial advisor, we look forward to helping you look at this time with joyous and resounding JUBILATION!

“The Future Depends on What You Do Today”- Mahatma Gandhi

100-candlesNo one has a crystal ball.  If we did, we might ask three important questions:

-How long will I live?

-Will I have enough money if I live to age 100?

-How will I spend the time I have on this earth?

As wealth managers dedicated to increasing families’ wealth and legacies, we consider these questions and the related answers as extremely important.

We Americans are living longer.  From 1980 to 2020, the number of Americans 90 years of age and older tripled to 1.9 million. And, by 2050, it is expected there will be 8 million 90 and over.  This is a new paradigm.  Historically, people retired in their 50s and early 60s and lived their last few years retired in comfort during the “golden years”.   These days, someone retiring in their early 60s could live 30 or 40 more years.  If so, will they have enough money and what will they do for that time period (perhaps 1/3 or more of their lifetime on earth)?

Life Expectancy. There are some good tools to help you estimate when your “plan will end.”  Here are three: https://www.livingto100.com/, https://www.bluezones.com/ (click on tools), and https://www.myabaris.com/tools/life-expectancy-calculator-how-long-will-i-live/, (Note: each site will require you entering your email address) These tools can take 5-10 minutes.  All look at personal health, family history and socioeconomic status.

Will My Nest Egg Hold Out?  Next, it’s time to calculate your expected “financial independence” date.  See our blog of April 21, 2015 http://www.dwmgmt.com/plan-for-financial-independence-not-retirement/  This is the date at which you have enough assets for the rest of your life without needing to work for money.  Recently this “independence” date has been extended for many due to three principal factors; increased expected longevity, lower expected returns, and reductions in and uncertainty about pensions and social security. The financial independence calculation requires a review and monitoring of key current and expected metrics: assets, additions to assets, longevity, retirement income, inflation, investment returns, tax rates, and spending goals.  Of course, all results must be stress tested and regularly monitored and revised as appropriate.

Meaning, Identity and Purpose in Remaining Years.  Planning for the “golden years” goes well beyond money.   Happiness, of course, is more than that.  We discussed it in our September 9th blog http://www.dwmgmt.com/how-would-you-rate-your-life/.  We ask our clients not only about their financial priorities, but also about their visions for their family, career, health, dreams, legacy, education and charity.

These days, more and more seniors are taking inventory on who they are, their accumulated skills and experience and want to stay engaged in the broader society and economy, continuing to be useful, active and “keep going”.  Here are some recent inspiring examples in the news:

  • Gerry Marzorati, former editor of the New York Times and author of the new book “Late to the Ball” has immersed himself in tennis since taking it up in his mid-50s. Mr. Marzorati recognizes that “Sixty is not the new 40. Fifty isn’t either.  Your lung capacity in late middle-age is in steady decline as are your fast-twitch muscle fibers that provide power and speed. Your sight, senses and balances are getting worse.”  Yet, undaunted, Mr. Marzorati concluded that for him, his “golden years” would be spent on “finding something new, something difficult- to immerse yourself in and improve at.”  He threw himself into his new passion, hiring a coach, practicing for hours and hours and even entering competitions in his new love.  No trophies yet, but fulfillment.
  • Alan Page, the leader of Vikings’ Purple People Eaters, is about to start his third career at age 70.  After his Hall of Fame NFL career, Mr. Page finished law school and became a Justice in the Minnesota State Supreme Court for 24 years until recent mandatory retirement.  Now he and his wife will commit their full-time efforts to their Page Foundation, focused on educating young children, through money and mentoring.
  • At 100, Ida Keeling is still running for her life. She has the fastest time for American women aged 95-99 in the 60-meter “dash” at 29.86 seconds.  She is 4’6” and weighs 83 pounds.  She said she was fast as a girl, though back then there were few opportunities for girls.  What makes her faster now is that “everyone has slowed down.”  She became a single parent of four when her husband died at age 42.  Ms. Keeling’s daughter, Shelley, herself a track coach, got Ida back into running when Mom was 67.  Her one hour of daily running gives Ms. Keeling a sense of serenity: “Time marches on, but I keep going.”

Go ahead.  Take the test!  See how long you will be at life’s party.   Then, by yourself, or with help from a wealth manager like DWM, develop, monitor and maintain a financial, personal and family plan for the future that meets your priorities and visions. The future depends on what you do today.  Go for it!

MGP 4 – The Next Generation of Financial Planning

MGP logo onlyThe financial industry is seeing some interesting changes spurred by the recently-enacted DOL fiduciary rule (see our recent blog at http://www.dwmgmt.com/fiduciary-standard-closing-in-on-reps-and-brokers/ ). At DWM, we welcome these changes as it now requires financial advisors to adhere to a rule that we have been following from the beginning…which is to make investment and planning recommendations with the client’s best interests in mind.  We always put the client first and always remain committed to this philosophy.

 

Last week, MoneyGuidePro, our chosen software provider, came out with a new version of their financial planning tool called MGP 4.  It is the next generation of financial planning software and the updates are specifically intended to help the financial advisor stay in line with the new rules.  The changes have made the software more “conversational” so advisor and client can spend more time discussing goals and retirement requirements, something we have always focused on.  We have spent some time reviewing the new features and there is a small learning curve with it.  We do think in the long run, it’s a nice update.  If you have recently logged on and were surprised or frustrated with it, you are not alone.  We want to describe some of the basics to you and, of course, we are always available for questions.

 

The biggest change is in the presentation and some of the familiar indexes are set up in new locations.  The updated format takes you to a My Plans landing page where you will have access to your financial plan.  Once the plan is selected, you will be on the page with personal information, similar to the previous version.  If you look at the top of this page, there is a progression line with three circles on it. The circle on the left is marked “About You” and is green at this stage. Once you click on the circle, the dropdown has all the items from the previous version grouped in four categories- Personal, Goals, Money and Risk and Allocation.  Click on each of these for details. ‘Personal’ shows personal information and has a new area for expectations and concerns.  ‘Goals’ has a retirement schedule and a place to include your goals, including one for health care, a newly-established feature to help us understand and track the costs that health care may have on your financial plan.  When you click on ‘Money’, you will see the familiar drop-down categories from the old version – including investments, retirement income and net worth.  Finally the ‘Risk and Allocation’ section will help us evaluate your risk tolerance and allocation strategy so we can see if they are in line with your goals.  You can always skip a category by returning to the “progression line” at the top and selecting your choice.   Everything is here, it just may take an extra step to get there.

 

*Tech Tip:  If you want to have an abbreviated look at your plan, you can select the ‘My Snapshot’ tab on the first page to have quick access to some of the most popular features like net worth, goals and results.

 

Once you finish ‘Risk & Allocation’, you are ready to move to the ‘Results’ circle.  You’ve seen these headings before. We suggest you click on ‘recommended scenario’.  Once on that page, look at the left side and you’ll see blue rectangles with personalized strategy tabs based on your goals.  One new, exciting feature is the Social Security tab which allows you to calculate your best strategy drawing benefits, if you haven’t already begun.  You can also choose the “What if Worksheet”. Here is where we modify certain predictors for the future like rates of return, inflation or living longer.  You can look under the recommended scenario or under the ‘What if worksheet’ Monte Carlo simulation graphs and you will see the blue rectangle “explore”.  Click on explore and then scroll down to “combined details.”    You’re now into the results page and graph, which all of our clients have seen before and shows the annual and linear progression of the value of your future portfolio.  This chart starts with the current value of your investment portfolio and shows how the additions, earnings, taxes and spending or goals might impact it going forward.  You can follow it to the wonderfully euphemized “end of your plan”!  We always find that amusing…

 

There are many other features hidden in this financial planning software and we invite you to “play” with this program any time. There is something for everyone in here.  In the play zone, you can add any number of crazy or exciting goals to see if you can make them come true.  Or if you want to prepare for the worst, you can stress test for challenges in the “what are you afraid of” feature. There are strategy tools, a budget feature and you can print your net worth report anytime. The ‘Finish’ tab includes the reports area which is not as intuitive as before, so if you have questions, please call us.  We are always glad to help…or run them for you!  And don’t worry, when you are finished playing with your plan, we always keep the original copy that is our constant.  DWM wants you to understand and participate in your financial planning and be as educated and knowledgeable as possible.  After all, that is our fiduciary responsibility and we always put our clients first!

How the New Changes to Social Security May Affect You

How-Social-Security-Works-cartoonPresident Barack Obama signed the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 into law on November 2, 2015. The budget provides relief for sequester cuts and allows for increased investments to support economic growth and build a strong middle-class for the next two years. To offset the cost of additional discretionary spending, the budget had to make cuts or changes to certain programs, including the Social Security program. The adjustments to Social Security will eliminate the file and suspend and restricted application strategies that helped some couples increase their lifetime Social Security benefits.

The new Social Security laws will take effect May 1, 2016. For those individuals currently using the file and suspend or restricted application strategies, they will not be affected by the rule changes. In addition, those individuals that turn age 66 before April 30, 2016 may elect to use the file and suspend strategy, if completed before May 1, 2016. The restricted application strategy will be available for those individuals that turned age 62 by December 31, 2015.

The file and suspend strategy allowed for one spouse, who reached their full retirement age, to file for and immediately suspend his or her benefits. By doing so, the second spouse would be allowed to start receiving a spousal benefit. The suspended benefits of the first spouse would then accrue delayed retirement credits at 8% a year. Under the new rules, if an individual decides to suspend his or her benefits, all benefits payable on his or her earnings record to other individuals will be suspended as well.

The restricted application strategy was often used in conjunction with the file and suspend strategy. By filing a restricted application, a person could apply for just a spousal benefit while his or her benefits accrued delayed retirement credits. Under the new rules, filing for a spousal benefit will trigger a person’s own retirement benefit. The Social Security Administration will pay only the greater of the spousal benefit or a person’s own benefit.

These two strategies were actually unintended loopholes that extended from the “voluntary suspension” concept introduced by the Senior Citizen Freedom to Work Act of 2000. The idea was originally intended to allow seniors that had mistakenly applied to receive their benefits early, stop their payments and earn delayed retirement credits. This allowed for these seniors to continue working, or even rejoin the workforce, without the risk of reducing or eliminating their social security benefit. The Social Security Administration will reduce a person’s annual benefit, if under the full retirement age, by $1 for every $2 made over a certain dollar threshold ($15,720 for 2016). Earned income includes W-2 wages and net earnings if self-employed. It does not include pensions, annuities, investment income, interest, or government or military retirement benefits.

It’s important to note that even if you missed out on using one of these strategies, you still may receive your maximum benefit. According to an analysis done by Social Security Choices, a software company that helps individuals optimize Social Security strategies, only about 18% of the cases analyzed showed it was beneficial to use the file and suspend and restricted application strategies. In addition, if these strategies were implemented, it could take as many as 12 years until a cumulative benefit was received.

With Social Security benefits playing a large part in calculating financial independence, DWM has researched the new adjustments to better understand how our clients will be affected. Although the new laws will limit the amount of planning available, we will continue to analyze each client’s Social Security situations in an effort to maximize their benefits, as there are still options and strategies available.

Furthermore, any quantitative analysis is complicated by the risk that there will be future changes to Social Security, which could include “means testing”.   Individuals, whose retirement incomes exceed established thresholds, could have their future benefits reduced or eliminated. We anticipate that maximizing Social Security strategies will continue to be a moving target. We look forward to working with each of our clients as they approach “retirement age”.

Is the 4% Withdrawal “Rule” Reliable?

DiceRules of thumb can be great, except when they don’t work. Take the 4% withdrawal rate rule, for example.

This rule, developed twenty years ago, is used to forecast how much people can spend annually in retirement without running out of money. Let’s say a couple has $1,000,000 and has just retired. The rule says if they spend $40,000 (4%) from the portfolio and increase this annual withdrawal by the inflation rate, their $1 million nest egg should last for the rest of their lives.

Historically, an average annual return on a balanced allocation strategy portfolio was roughly 7% from 1970 until 2014, while annual inflation was 4%. Hence, a real return of 3%. The conditions during those four decades are different from today. The decades of the ’80s and ’90s produced average equity returns close to 20% per year. The bond bull market produced returns of almost 9% per year for the last three decades. During this time, the “rule” could have worked fairly well for some people. Today, however, there are a number of problems with this rule.

First, inflation forecasted returns and longevity have changed greatly. Inflation has been negative over the last twelve months and has averaged less than 1% per year over the last three years. Forecasted returns, of course, vary widely and no one can predict the future. A conservative estimate might be a 2% real return (3% nominal less 1% inflation, or 5% nominal less 3% inflation). Longevity is increasing. Hence, for many people, their calculations should be based on an eventual age of 100.

In an article from this past Sunday’s NYT, Professor Wade Pfau at the American College of Financial Services put it this way: “Because interest rates are so low now, while stock markets are also very highly valued, we are in unchartered waters in terms of the conditions at the start of retirement and knowing whether the 4 percent rule can work in those cases.”

Second, the 4% rule never took into account non-linear spending patterns of retirees, other goals, other retirement resources, asset allocation, taxes and stress testing the plan.

There’s a much better way to do this, though it takes more thought and time and a disciplined process. For those who value their financial future, it’s worth the effort. Here are some of the elements that you need consider:

Start with your goals. At what age do you want to achieve financial independence (freedom to retire)? What will be your likely spending patterns during retirement? What will your housing be? What will be your likely health care costs? Are there any other needs, wants or wishes you have for the future?

Retirement resources. The calculation needs to include not only the investment portfolio, but also other income sources, such as social security, pension, rental income or part-time work. The calculation also needs to review all assets, not simply the investment portfolio, and determine the amount, if any, of proceeds from the sale of those assets that could be used in the future to fund goals.

Asset allocation. Varying allocations will likely produce varying results of returns and volatility. The plan should be calculated using the appropriate allocation strategy. Returns should be calculated in two ways- historical and forecasted.

Taxes. Income taxes can have a huge impact on a plan. Allocation of investments into appropriate (taxable, qualified, Roth) accounts can make a real difference. Tax-efficiency throughout the plan is imperative.

Stress Testing. The calculations need to be done using a “stochastic” process such as Monte Carlo simulation rather than a linear one. A Monte Carlo simulation is a tool for estimating probability distributions of potential results by allowing for random variations over time. The world does not operate in a straight line and linear projections can be greatly upset (and therefore of little value) when outliers come into play. In addition, stress testing involves looking at the potential impact of negative factors in the future, including living longer, social security cuts, lower than expected investment returns, and/or large health care costs.

In short, the old 4% withdrawal rule is not a good way to predict whether or not you will fulfill the goals you have for you and your family. However, there is a process that can provide reasonable assurance and one you should expect from your wealth manager, like DWM, as part of their package of services for you. It can be a little complicated but should be customized for your particular situation. It will take some time and effort. It requires discipline and monitoring. However, if you value your financial future, it’s well worth the effort.