Climate Capitalists to the Rescue?

Record heat has hit the South. On October 1, it was 101 in Montgomery, AL. Record highs were hit in AL, TN, MS and KY. An acute lack of rainfall has dried out the Southeast as well and residents and farmers are hurting. Planet Earth continues to get warmer.

Look at the chart above showing the changes in temperatures from the 1850s until now. Each stripe is one year. Dark blue years are cooler and red stripes are warmer. The period 1971-2000 is the base line. At the same time, extreme events like Dorian are becoming more severe, more glaciers have died and seas and lakes are getting higher. The climate has changed.

The past century has seen major changes in the world. The Industrial Revolution has brought riches to some, higher standards of living to many, and the population has increased from 2 billion to 7 billion in that last century, and carbon dioxide (“CO2”) emissions have skyrocketed. Fossil fuels have been used to produce industrial power, electricity, transportation, heating, fertilizers and plastic. In 1900 about 2 billion tons of CO2 went airborne. For 2019, 40 billion tons per year will be emitted, with the biggest increase in the last 30 years.   Expanding use of fossil fuel and related increasing emissions of CO2 have gone hand in hand with the expansion of world growth. See the chart below.

GDP CO2

We humans also produce CO2, breathing and eating.  Trees and plants absorb CO2 and, with sunlight and water, convert it to food.   Compared to 1900, we have 5 billion more humans, expanded use of fossil fuels and, because of deforestation, we have less flora to absorb the CO2.

The first half of the 20th century scientists believed that almost all of the CO2 given off by industry and humans and not absorbed by plants would be sucked up by the oceans.  By 1965 oceanographers realized that the seas couldn’t keep with the CO2 emissions.   Climate change shouldn’t come as a surprise; we’ve known about it for decades.

There are lots of predictions about the impact of climate change in the future. No one can predict the future. But certainly, as our beloved Yogi Berra always said, “The Future is not what it used to be.”

The Economist recaps it this way: “Climate change is not the end of the world.”  Humankind is not poised teetering on the edge of extinction.  The planet is not in peril.”  However, climate change could be a dire threat to the displacement of tens of millions of people, it will likely dry up wells and water mains, increase flooding as well as producing higher temps and more severe weather.  The Economist concludes that “the longer humanity takes to curb emissions, the greater the dangers and sparser the benefits-and the larger the risk of some truly catastrophic surprises.”

Addressing climate change will also provide substantial business opportunities in the coming years.  Already some countries are abandoning coal to generate electricity. Britain, e.g., has developed a thriving offshore wind farm industry used to generate power. Germany recently announced that it will spend $75 billion to meet its 2030 goals to combat climate change, primarily in the transportation area with electric vehicles.

In addition, “climate capitalists” want to do good for the planet and well for themselves.  Elon Musk has invested billions into batteries and electric vehicles.   Chinese BYD’s Zhenzhen sprawling campus is a major provider of solar cells, electric cars, heavy machinery and other items needing energy storage.  Warren Buffet has invested $232 million into BYD.  American billionaire Philip Anschutz has spent a decade promoting a $3 billion high-voltage electric grid. Bill Joy, a co-founder of Sun Microsystems, is now backing Beyond Meat, a maker of plant-based alternatives to burgers.  Microsoft’s Bill Gates established a $1 billion company to bankroll technologies that “radically cut annual emissions.”  Even Pope Francis is using the Vatican Bank’s $3 billion fund to help fight climate change.

The UN’s one day climate summit last week concluded with a number of new announcements.  65 countries and the EU have committed to reach net-zero carbon by 2050.   Unfortunately 75% of the emissions come from 12 countries and 4 of them, India, American, China and Russia made no commitment.  However, certain businesses such as Nestle, Salesforce and have made commitments to reach net-zero by 2050 or before.

2050 will be here before we know it.  Yet, technological change can be adopted quickly, particularly when people are provided a better alternative.  In America, the shift from horse-drawn carts to engine-driven vehicles took place within a decade, from 1903 to 1913.  Let’s hope climate capitalists all over the world do well for themselves and good for planet as soon as possible and we humans and our countries do our parts as well.

 

REINVENT CAPITALISM?

Kraft Heinz (KHC) and Unilever (UL) have many things in common. Both companies own hundreds of global consumer brands- KHC includes not only Kraft foods and Heinz Ketchup but also Planter’s peanuts and Grey Poupon mustard. Unilever owns Dove soap and Hellmann’s mayonnaise, Lipton’s tea and Ben & Jerry’s ice cream. Both have been in business since the 1920s. Both employ tens of thousands of employees.

In early 2017, KHC offered to buy UL for $143 billion. UL’s then CEO, Paul Polman, fended off the takeover attempt because of a “corporate culture that couldn’t have been more different from Unilever’s.” Since then, KHC’s share price has dropped 70% and UL’s has increased about 35%. If we look at some of the differences between KHC and UL we will see why Mr. Polman didn’t want to merge with KHC and why he would like to see capitalism “reinvented.”

After receiving his M.B.A., Mr. Polman joined Procter & Gamble which provided the foundations for his leadership approach. In his recent NYT interview, Mr. Polman indicated that “P&G has enormous values that permeate all levels and all places in the world that it operates. Ethics, doing the right thing for the long term, taking care of your community is really the way you want a responsible business to be run.”

Fast forward to 2009. After 10 years of decline, UL hires Mr. Polman as CEO. Annual sales had dropped from $55 billion to $38 billion. Mr. Polman felt UL had good brands and good people but had become too “short-term focused.” A change was needed.

Mr. Polman brought back values from the 20s that were at the roots of Unilever’s success. He felt a more responsible business model was needed. He came up with a bold plan to double Unilever’s revenue while cutting the company’s negative impact on the environment in half. And, he committed his entire team to focus on the long-term, not the short-term, in solving important issues.

In short, Mr. Polman believes “We need to reinvent capitalism, to move financial markets to the longer term.”  He felt that “KHC is clearly focused on a few billionaires that do extremely well, but the company is on the bottom of the human rights indexes and is built on the concept of cost cutting.”

This long-term vs. short-term focus is at the heart of a recent best seller, “Prosperity” by Colin Mayer, a former dean of Oxford’s Said business school. Dr. Mayer believes that a great shift in businesses, here in the U.S. and abroad, started about 50 years ago with the overwhelming acceptance of Chicago economist Milton Friedman’s simple doctrine that “the one and only responsibility” of a business is to increase its profits for the benefits of its shareholders, as long as it stays within the rules of the game.” This has been a “powerful concept that has defined business practice and government policies and has molded generations of business leaders.” It has resulted in a huge emphasis on quarterly reporting and quarterly behavior.

Dr. Mayer believes, on the other hand, that the purpose of a corporation should consider its customers, employees, suppliers, and communities as well as its shareholders. Historically, family-owned businesses were cognizant of and responsive to all the constituencies that compose a business and focused on the long-term. Today, almost all corporations in the UK and many US corporations are no longer owned by the founders or their families. This change has accelerated due to the focus on short-term profits, often by simply merging and cutting costs. Dr. Mayer also pointed out that corporations can also have dual-class share structures (typically voting and non-voting shares) which can allow the founders and their like-minded successors to control the company and therefore focus on its long-term purpose rather than quarterly earnings reports. Ford, Google, and Facebook all have this structure. This is a positive trend.

Robert Reich’s new book “The Common Good”, sums it up this way, “In the corporate world, the single-minded-pursuit of shareholder value has displaced the older notion that companies are also responsible for the well-being of workers, customers and communities they serve.” “The common good is no longer a fashionable idea.” He defines common good as “consisting of our shared values about what we owe another as citizens who are bound together in the same society.” Regardless of political party, all Americans should embrace contributions to the common good.

For 50 years, there has been a huge focus on financial capital with less attention paid to human capital, intellectual capital, material capital and environmental capital. All five of these components of capital should be considered for the overall long-term growth and common good of America and the world.

Reinventing capitalism would require companies to focus on more than quarterly profits. Consideration of all of its constituents- customers, shareholders, employees, suppliers, communities and the environment for the long-term-could certainly benefit the common good and likely produce even better stock market returns in the long-run as well.

ECONOMY CELEBRATES 10 YEARS OF GROWTH: IS IT TIME TO PARTY?

Next week will mark the 121st month of the current bull market- the longest business cycle since records began in 1854. Based on history, a recession should be starting soon. Bond rates now form an “inverse yield curve” with shorter term rates above longer term, which typically signals a downturn. Business confidence is down. However, 224,000 American jobs were created in June and equities continue to soar, rising 16-20% year to date. Is it time to party or not?

The business cycle appears to be lengthening. The current expansion, coming after the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, has been unusually long and sluggish. Average GDP growth has been 2.3% per year, as compared to the 3.6% annual growth in the past three expansions. The workforce is aging. Big firms invest less. Productivity has slipped. And, Northwestern Economics Professor Robert Gordon continues to assert that American’s developments in information and communication technology just don’t measure up to past achievements including electricity, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, and the internal combustion engine.

However, the changing economy may now be less volatile for a number of reasons. 1/3 of American’s 20th century recessions were caused by industrial declines or oil-price plunges. Today, manufacturing is only 11% of GDP and its output requires 25% less energy than in 1999. Services are now 70% of our GDP. Furthermore, the value of the housing market is now 143% of GDP, as compared to a peak of 188%. Banks have lots of capital.

Finally, inflation has been very low, averaging 1.6% in the U.S. (and 1.1% in the euro zone) per year during the current expansion. In earlier business cycles, the economy would surge ahead, the jobs market would overheat, causing inflation to rise and leading the Federal Reserve to put on the brakes by raising interest rates. Today, it’s different. Even though the unemployment rate is at a 50 year low of 3.7%, wage growth is only 3%. As the Economist pointed out last week in “Riding High,” American workers have less bargaining power in the globalized economy and are getting a smaller percentage of company profits, keeping inflation down. The Fed recently announced that it is less concerned about rising prices and more concerned about growth slowing and, therefore, will lower interest rates at its meeting next week.

Changes in the economy to slower growth, more reliance on services and lower inflation all contribute to longer business cycles. Yet, the changing economy, particularly globalization and technology, has also produced new risks.

Manufacturing that was formerly done in the U.S. is now outsourced to global producers. These chains can be severely disrupted by a trade war. This could produce a major shock- imagine if Apple was cut-off from its suppliers in China. Also, take a look at the impact that the prolonged grounding of Boeing’s 737 MAX is having on the U.S. economy. It’s hurting suppliers, airlines, and tens of thousands of workers, while $30 billion of the MAX sit grounded. Global supply chains are extremely interconnected these days.

IT is significantly linked as well. Many businesses outsource their IT services via cloud-computing to a few giants, including Alphabet (GOOGL).  85% of Alphabet’s $100 billion annual sales comes from advertising, which in the past has been closely correlated to the business cycle. GOOGL invested $45 billion last year, 5 times more than Ford. In fact, the S&P 500 companies invested $318 billion last year, of which $220 billion was spent by ten tech companies. The big IT companies are now facing regulatory issues worldwide. What would be the worldwide impact if GOOGL, Facebook or others get their “wings” clipped?

Also, finance issues could disrupt the expansion. Although housing and banks are in decent shape, private debts remain high by historical standards, at 250% of GDP, or $50 trillion. And, if the prime lending rate continues to decline, banks’ profits and balance sheets will likely weaken.

Lastly, politics is a big risk. There are the threats of trade wars with China and physical war with Iran. The big tax cut that pushed markets up in 2017 could now produce lower year over year earnings for companies. On Monday, July 22nd, Congressional leaders and White House negotiators reached a deal to increase federal spending and raise the government’s borrowing limit. This would raise spending by $320 billion, at a time when the annual deficit is already nearing $1 trillion, despite the continuing expansion.

Conclusion: Changes in the economy have produced reasons why business cycles are longer, yet more sluggish. Those changes have also added new risks for a continuing expansion and bull market. No one can predict the future. Focus on what you can control: Make sure your risk level is appropriate for your risk profile. Make sure your portfolio is prepared for the next downturn. And, yes, stay invested.

Pizza Meets Technology

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What’s your favorite pizza? In Chicago, I love Lou Malnati’s deep-dish, in the Lowcountry, Grimaldi’s Brooklyn Bridge, with ricotta and Italian sausage, is amazing. And, now, thousands of years after pizza was invented, it too is being impacted by technology. Recently, the WSJ, in their “The Future of Everything” section, focused on the impact technology is having at Domino’s Pizza.

But first, let’s take a look at the history of pizza. Archeologists in Sardinia have found ancient remains from the 1st millennium B.C. of flattened bread that was apparently very popular. Writings in the 6th Century B.C. mentioned soldiers baking flatbread and covering it with cheese and dates. Stone ovens are mentioned in the 3rd B.C. when Roman historians described “flat round of dough dressed with olive oil, herbs, and honey baked in stones.” Excavations made in Pompeii show that in the 1st Century B.C. retail shops were making and selling pizzas.

Modern pizza seems to have come from Naples in the 16th century. Tomatoes from the New World combined with bread and other products to produce the earliest form of modern pizza. The Queen of Naples in the mid-18th century had a special oven in her palace for making pizzas. Antica Pizzeria Port’Alba, the first modern pizzeria, opened in Naples in 1830. By the end of the 19th century, citizens of Naples were consuming pizza for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

In the early 1900s, the first Italian pizza in America was introduced by street peddlers who walked up and down Taylor Street in Chicago. New York City got the first pizza license in 1905. Pizzerias spread across the U.S. in the early 20th century. In 1943, Chicago’s Ike Sewell invented the deep-dish pizza. In the 1950s, celebrities of Italian origin, including Frank Sinatra and Joe DiMaggio, promoted pizza. The first frozen pizza was released in 1957. Pizza Hut started in 1958, Little Caesar’s in 1959 and Domino’s in 1967.

These days, pizza is a huge business. According to 2018 “Pizza Power” report, the worldwide pizza market was $134 billion, with U.S. the top country, at $45 billion annually. There are 75,000 U.S. pizzerias and the top 50 chains have average unit sales of almost $600,000, with annual growth overall at 12%. The big winners were reported to be those who focused on consumer needs by embracing “websites, social media, online ordering and delivery technology.”

Domino’s, with 6,000 U.S. outlets is the world’s largest pizza company. Yet, their just-issued 2Q19 quarterly report showed slower growth. Their stock has gone “cold”- investors have “lost their appetite” for Domino’s Pizza. Technology has fueled new and improved competitors, delivery apps, online ordering and quality.

The growth of online ordering through companies like Grubhub and Door Dash has impacted Domino’s business. Domino’s, with its own delivery drivers, has declined to form partnerships with them. Also, food delivery companies, such as Uber Eats and Postmates, have jumped into the business aggressively with free or discounted delivery during the March NCAA tournament period with great success. Even though Domino’s hasn’t raised their prices on pizzas in over a decade, increases in same-store sales are slowing.

Ritch Allison, CEO of Domino’s, was recently interviewed by the WSJ for its “The Future of Everything” section. Mr. Allison was clear that “Pizza will endure. However, almost everything about how a pizza is made and transported to the customer is undergoing a high-tech shift.”

Domino’s has maintained that it won’t outsource delivery. Instead it will invest in operations to make delivery more efficient and better for customers. Low unemployment and rising minimum wages in some cities are pushing up labor costs and making it harder to find drivers. They’re working on a driverless vehicle smaller than a golf cart, with compartments that can be heated up or chilled. They are looking at drones and even deliveries by bike and scooter riders.

Mr. Allison indicated that they are working on upgrading their “Dom” automated telephone answering service. They’ve been missing customer calls during busy times. Their goal is to answer every call and hopefully build bigger orders as well. They hope improved data on customers will help them produce better menus, adding and deleting items over time based on demand patterns.

For Domino’s “Robots will help, but not replace human pizza makers.”   Robots can put dough balls on trays, but Mr. Allison wants to “keep the magic of pizza making” with humans. Domino’s is currently using, in locations in Australia and New Zealand, artificially intelligent cameras to photograph and grade each pie based on different criteria. This quality audit is designed to ensure that a subpar pizza never reaches a customer’s door. They hope to extend this quality method to operations worldwide.

Yes, even our beloved pizzas, that humanity has been eating for thousands of years, and hopefully for many more thousands as well, are being impacted by technology. Hopefully, that will make it easier in the future for all of us to get our perfect pizza at the perfect time.

Real Estate: Time to Sell that Large House?

American homes are a lot larger than they used to be.  In 1973, the median size of a newly built house was 1,500 square feet.  In 2015, that figure was 2,500 sq. ft. – 67% more. Plus, with smaller families, there is lots more room per person: 507 sq. ft./person in 1973, and, almost double, 971 sq. ft./person in 2015.

In addition, Americans aren’t any happier with bigger houses.  A study by PhD Clement Bellet found that “house satisfaction in the American suburbs has remained steady for the last four decades.”  His reasoning is based on the premise that people compare their houses to others in the neighborhood-particularly the biggest ones.  The largest homes in the neighborhood seem to be the benchmark.  Dr. Bellet tracked the “one-upmanship” by owners of the biggest homes from 1980 to 2009.  He found that the size of largest 10% of houses increased 40% more than the size increase of median houses.  Apparently, the competition never ends.

Fifty years ago, a one bathroom house or a bedroom that slept 3 siblings might have felt cramped- but it also probably felt normal.  Today, many Americans can afford more space and they’ve bought it. They just don’t appear to be any happier with it.

Dr. Robert Shiller, the noted Nobel Prize winner and co-author of the Case-Shiller index of housing prices, was interviewed recently by the WSJ for an article titled “The Biggest Ways People Waste Money”.  Dr. Shiller opined that “Big houses are a waste.”  He believes that modernization has reduced our space needs.  However, he recognizes, that for some, a big house is a symbol of success. Your neighbors may not know about your finances and achievements, but they can see your big house.

Dr. Shiller suggests books such as “The New Small House”- that talk about designing houses to look impressive as well as function on a smaller scale. Living smaller can be easier on the pocketbook, the owner’s time and the environment.  He concludes: “Just like Uber and Lyft and Airbnb, using resources more efficiently, we can also build houses that are better at serving people’s needs without being big”.

As a result, we’re seeing that fewer people want to buy large, elaborate dream houses.  We know that in the high-end suburbs of Chicago that prices today, in some cases, are ½ of what they were 10-15 years ago. In the Southeast and the Sunbelt, McMansions are sitting on the market, enduring deep price cuts to sell.  For example, Kiawah Island currently has 225 houses for sale, which is a 3-4 year supply.  Of these, the largest and most expensive are the hardest to sell, especially if they haven’t been renovated recently.

The problem is expected to get worse in the next decade.  Baby Boomers currently own 32 million houses, 40% of all the homes in America, and many of these homes are big ones. As the Boomers advance into their 70s and 80s, many will be looking to downsize and/or move to senior housing and therefore will attempt to offload their big house.

When we at DWM talk with clients about housing, we generally ball park a figure of 5-7% of the market value of the house as the annual net cost.  The costs include interest, if there is a mortgage, the opportunity costs of not investing the equity in the house, real estate taxes, insurance, and maintenance and repairs. From this total we subtract the expected appreciation.  For example, a $500,000 house with a $200,000, 4.5% mortgage, might have $9,000 in interest, $18,000 in opportunity costs, $5,000 in real estate taxes, $3,000 in insurance and $5,000 in repairs. Total costs of $40,000 less 2% appreciation of $10,000 nets $30,000 in annual net costs or 6% of the market value.  Of course, values differ across the country and by house. Furthermore, there are some sections of the country experiencing excellent appreciation and some that are experiencing deprecation in value.

As we look at our spending, it’s always good to compare the value received to the cost and, if the cost exceeds the value, a change might be in order.  In our example, if the couple owning the $500,000 house feels they are getting $30,000 or more per year of value from the house, that’s great.  If they are not, particularly if they have a bigger house that may not be appreciating and may be hard to sell in the future, they may want to think about a change now.  Give us a call if you would like to discuss this very important topic.

IT’S SUMMERTIME! LET’S TALK BASEBALL: IT’S MORE THAN JUST A GAME

First, full disclosure. I love baseball. I was born 2 blocks from Wrigley Field and walked to Cub games alone when I was 7 and sat in the bleachers. As a lifetime Cub fan it’s a mixed blessing- a life of both affection and affliction. Happily, the Cubs are having another good year and the White Sox are resurging. Baseball is a fun game for sure, but it’s more than just a game. This week’s Economist’s article “Baseball and Exceptionalism” examines how our national pastime reflects America’s desire to be different and successful.

You may have heard that a young man named Abner Doubleday invented baseball in 1839 in Cooperstown, New York. Doubleday later was credited with firing the first shot for the Union at Ft. Sumter and became a Civil War hero.

Actually, that story is untrue. Doubleday was at West Point in 1839 and he never claimed to have anything to do with baseball. The Doubleday myth was created by A.J. Spalding, a sporting goods magnate. In the 1930s the National Baseball Hall of Fame was established in Cooperstown. However, if you visit Cooperstown today, you’ll see a plaque admitting that the Doubleday myth is untrue.

The real history of baseball, like many things, is more complicated than that. References to games resembling baseball in the United States date back to the American Revolution. Its most direct ancestors appear to be two English games; cricket and rounders. However, American promoters in the 19th century, including Mr. Spalding, saw political and commercial profits to be gained from promoting a uniquely American game that was both different and exceptional. Actually, no surprise, American baseball teams raided cricket clubs (Philadelphia for example had 100 such clubs) for players, while the great American poet Walt Whitman proclaimed “Baseball is our game- the American game.”

Anglophobia, stirred by Britain’s trade with the Confederacy during the Civil War, pushed the issue. Alarmed by the persistent claim that baseball was invented by the English, Spalding bankrolled a commission, fueled by “patriotism and research” to produce a better explanation. The Doubleday myth was the result.

For Spalding and many Americans then and now, baseball was (and is) more than just a game. It reflects the triumphs, defeats and tensions of our nation. American baseball is the story of our country over the last 150 years. A common endeavor, yet with periodic problems and disputes between communities, owners and workers, and cultures. Mexicans, Irish, Jewish and African Americans saw baseball as a point of entry to American culture. Author Philip Roth called baseball “this game that I loved with all my heart, not simply for the fun of playing it…but for the mythic and aesthetic dimension it could give to a boy’s life in participating in a core part of America.”

The Economist makes three very good points about Americans creating, and in many cases still believing, the untrue Doubleday myth about our national pastime. First, America is often less exceptional- because, like baseball, it is more of a “European- accented hybrid”- than it considers itself to be. Second, there are costs to self-deception such as isolation in sport and otherwise. For example, right now 2 billion people are avidly watching the Cricket World Cup while baseball remains basically an American game. Third, our country’s belief in our exceptionalism may be at the core of our achievements. Believing you are different and exceptional increases your confidence and that can produce greater success.

Henry Ford is known not only for his fantastic success with his automobile empire but also for his great quotes. I really like this one: “Whether you think you can, or you think you can’t- you’re right.” Henry Ford inspired Americans to be more confident-exceptional and different- and therefore more successful. Spalding’s myth about Abner Doubleday inventing baseball isn’t true, but certainly has helped Americans believe that we are exceptional and different and this had helped lead to many of our successes.

And, now, “Take Me Out to the Ballgame.”

The End of Signing on the Dotted Line

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We all lead busy lives, so it’s important to save time and maximize efficiency whenever we can. The new eSignature feature from Charles Schwab allows you to review, electronically sign, and send back eligible forms to us, making a variety of processes quicker and easier than ever before.

At DWM, we always stay up to date with the latest technology and keep you informed, so we can ensure the best possible experience for our clients. As we learn more about today’s changing technology and the need to stay on top of cybersecurity, going digital allows sensitive client material to remain safely guarded, as well as providing an easier, less burdensome and more accurate onboarding process for everyone.

eSignature is accepted on many new account applications, maintenance forms, and managed account forms, such as:

  • Schwab One Personal accounts
  • Schwab One Trust Accounts
  • Company Retirement Accounts (CRA/Pension Trust)
  • Custodial/Minor IRA Applications
  • Account Closure Forms
  • Designated Beneficiary Plan Agreements
  • Investor Checking Accounts
  • IRA Distribution Forms
  • MoneyLink Applications
  • Transfer Your Account (Into or Out of Charles Schwab)

For a full list of eligible forms, click here. This time-saving eSignature feature is extremely efficient, and it’s easy to use, too! Simply follow the steps below and you’ll be well on your way to mastering electronic signatures.

1)When expecting a form for eSignature, keep an eye out for an email from Charles Schwab that states “Documents for Your Electronic Signature.”

2)Click “Review Documents” at the bottom of that email.

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3)Log into your Schwab account using your Schwab Alliance when prompted. If you don’t know your account information, let us know or contact Schwab Alliance at 1-800-515-2157.

4)Click “Agree/Continue” to agree to the eSignature terms and conditions.

5)Review the document and ensure that it is accurate before signing.

6)When you are ready, choose from two signing options: automatic signature or draw, in which you digitally “draw” your own signature.

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7)Click “Sign” in all places where signature or initial is needed.

8)Click “Finish” to complete the process. DWM will be notified promptly and you will then receive a confirmation email.

 

We could all use some time back in our day, so if you’d like to learn more about eSignature, reach out to us at any time or contact Schwab Alliance at 1-800-515-2157 for more information.

HERE COME THE MILLENNIALS!

In only 12 years, 75% of American employees will be Millennials.  By then, even the last of the Baby Boomers will be 66 and on social security (though a few of us might still be working).  Generation X is a smaller cohort and some of its 54-65 year olds will already be retired.  The oldest Generation Zers will only be 34 at that time.   Yes, in 2030, the Millennials, aged 35 to 53, will be the backbone of the economy and country.

What an exciting time to be alive!  Can you imagine all the changes that may occur in the next 12 years?  Just consider that just 14 years ago Blockbuster Video had 9,000 stores and is now down to one last store in Oregon. 2004 was also the year Facebook was launched.

Yes, new reality can be exciting and challenging.  The Millennials bring with them their own expectations of life, work and values.  Those organizations and communities that embrace generational diversity will undoubtedly thrive in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous future.

Jennifer Brown, author of “Reversing the Generation Equation: Mentoring in the New Age of Work,” indicates that Millennials “possess the most diverse attitudes, tendencies and requirements of any preceding generation and they are bringing that to work and life and demanding to be welcomed, valued, respected and heard.”  They’ve grown up with being in the center of the activity and expect to stay there.

The Pew Research Center’s “Millennials in Adulthood” takes a look at just how unique this generation is and how the social, political and economic realities in their formative years have shaped them.  Due to a disconnect between Millennials and many organizations not willing to meet them half-way, it’s no surprise that Millennials have experienced greater job dissatisfaction than Generation X and Baby Boomers.

A study conducted by Deloitte showed that 56% of Millennials have “ruled out working for a particular organization because of its values or standard of conduct.”  49% have declined a task assigned to them that was thought to go against personal values or rules of ethics.  According to the study, Millennials are seeking a good work/life balance (more than monetary compensation), their own homes, a partner, flexible working conditions and financial security.  Furthermore, this group does not necessarily defer to seniority as seen in previous generations. For them, respect must be earned.  Which brings us to the concept of “Reverse Mentoring.”

Jack Welch of GE was one of the early pioneers of reverse mentoring.  Twenty years ago, as technological changes were sweeping our country, Mr. Welch encouraged 500 top-level executives at GE to reach out to people younger than them to learn about the internet.  Since then, reverse mentoring has gone beyond technological learning and expanded into ideas, advice and insights.  Organizations such as PWC and AARP are among those who have launched programs.

At PWC, the young mentors are in their early 20s and have been working long enough to understand how it works and short enough to still have a fresh perspective.  The AARP Foundation created a Mentor Up program in 2013 where teens and young adults come together with older generations to keep them current and connected with the younger world.  The young mentor the older mentees on technology and health and fitness.  They also exchange Valentine’s Day cards.  In short, intergenerational connections were made, skills exchanged, understanding obtained and mutual respect and admiration were achieved.

At DWM, we have two excellent young team members; Grant Maddox in Charleston and Jake Rickord in Palatine.  We are just starting a reverse mentoring program at DWM where Grant and Jake will be the mentors and Brett, Jenny, Ginny and I will be the mentees.  Once a month, we set aside lunch time for the mentor to share a topic, theme or idea they are interested in sharing and to explain two-way learning opportunities.  We invest time to learn, get to know one another better and increase our trust and respect for each other.  We are also starting to dismantle the old paradigm that “seniority always knows best.”

Our goal is generational diversity and respect for all.  Yes, the Millennials are coming. And, yes, they come with the most diverse attitudes, tendencies and requirements of any preceding generation.  As they say in World Cup Champion France, “Vive la Difference.”

Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst

grieving womanAutumn is here and the new season brings cooler temperatures and, perhaps, a change in routines. Life is all about change… it can be exciting change or unwelcome change and both kinds can be challenging. As wealth managers, DWM’s goal is always to maximize the positive and minimize the impact of anything negative that may occur. Becoming single, by death or divorce, is one of life’s most difficult challenges. Grief can cause emotional and physical distress and, sometimes, even cognitive impairment. Your resilience during this time can be directly affected by the stability of your financial resources. Though we all certainly hope that you never have to face the loss of a spouse or significant other, there are things that you can do now and guidelines to follow if necessary that will reduce the burden if something does happen.

A very important part of preparation is to collect all your financial data and keep it current and organized. Haphazard record-keeping can cause an agonizing and time-consuming chore in the midst of a stressful situation. Keep an accurate inventory of all your assets, accounts and property. Have a physical or electronic file of your most recent statements from your checking and savings accounts, credit cards, mortgages or home equity lines, as well as all investment accounts. You will need copies of your most current insurance policy declaration pages, policies and statements. These might include your life, homeowners, auto, disability, long-term care and any other property or casualty policies. Also, it is important to keep marriage and birth certificates together. Keep at least 2 years of tax returns available and a current paystub or income information. You will also need wills, trust documents or other pertinent legal paperwork. And it is good to have a current Social Security benefit statement, which you can access online. Finally, keep a record of ALL your password information for both financial and social accounts. Consider telling a close confidante where your information is available. DWM offers a safe and secure electronic “vault” on its servers for storing copies of all of your financial information for you.

If something does happen and you are faced with a loss or separation, be sure to first take some time to grieve and don’t feel like you must rush into any decisions. Once you are ready, you should contact your financial advisor, hopefully DWM, and your attorney to guide you through this process. Start notifying all financial institutions to change names or close accounts. Contact the insurance companies, credit bureaus, credit card companies and any other creditors. Consider closing accounts, memberships and subscriptions that are unnecessary. Start retitling all the assets and be sure to keep a list of who you have talked to and what needs to be done, as it can be a lot to remember. Be sure to pay all final bills, with a priority on mortgages and utilities. If need be, transfer bills, like utilities, into the new payer’s name. Also, notify the Social Security Administration, the Post Office and your or your spouse’s employer, if need be. Be sure to destroy old cards and shred any unnecessary financial paperwork. Try to avoid putting too much detail on social media pages or in obituaries to protect your security.

It is very important to have a proactive financial advisor, like DWM, before and after you become single. We can assist with getting everything organized and advise you on all the requirements during this difficult time. We will work with you to evaluate your net worth and review all your assets and liabilities. It is also a good time to re-assess your risk profile and investment strategies. We can help you look at your goals and budget and adjust your financial plan to accommodate new needs and changing situations. You might be thinking about some lifestyle changes… perhaps moving to a different home, getting a new job, or doing some travelling. Life’s challenges may bring some changes in your life. DWM welcomes the opportunity to be the leader of your transition team.

TOTAL RETURN: Don’t Focus Solely on Price Change

Dollar up downHumans, especially those of us “number people”, are wired to focus on price change. And when it comes to investments, price change is certainly a gauge of how an investment is doing. But is it the only factor? Absolutely not.

Price change is just one-half of the components that dictates total return. Here’s the formula you need to know when it comes to performance:

TOTAL RETURNPRICE CHANGE + YIELD

What this means is that Total Return equals not only the return on investment due to price appreciation/ depreciation but also due to reinvested dividends or income. Frankly, price change alone can be a really poor gauge of how an investment is doing particularly one with regular distributions such as bonds. So, let’s talk about bonds.

We’ve discussed the inverse relationship between rising interest rates and bond prices before. Assuming the economy continues to heal and rates continue to rise, bond prices will go down on paper. In that case:

?

=

+

?

TOTAL RETURN

=

PRICE CHANGE

+

YIELD

We still don’t know what that does to total return. But let’s say we have a bond yielding 6% then we know:

?

=

-?

+

+6

TOTAL RETURN

=

PRICE CHANGE

+

YIELD

If the yield is bigger than the price change, then total return is still positive. As I mentioned in my last quarterly market commentary, a bond typically will lose 1% in price for every year of duration that it has left for every percentage point rise in interest rates. Hence, let’s assume a one-year time frame and if interest rates go up 1% for a fund that has 4 years of duration (meaning time to maturity) with a 6% coupon, then we know:

+1

=

-5

+

+6

TOTAL RETURN

=

PRICE CHANGE

+

YIELD

Even though the price went down 5%, the total return on the investment was actually up because of the positive-ness of the investment’s yield.

So don’t get caught up in just one part of the formula, folks. Total return is what matters.

BTW, this doesn’t only apply to just bonds. Yield (in the form of dividends) make a difference to equities as well.

Did you know that the S&P 500 has gained +9.8% per year over the last 50 years (1963-2012) on a total return basis? If you remove the impact of reinvested dividends, the raw index is only up +6.4% annually, HENCE dividends make up 35% of the index’s total return in the last half century. Wow!

(source: BTN Research)