We just wrapped up our fall seminars which focused on Pullbacks, Corrections, Bear, and Bull markets. Both venues – Palmetto Brewery in Charleston and Emmett’s Brewery in Palatine – served as great places to not only deliver an important financial presentation, but also as fine places to just hang out and visit with one another.
In case you missed our October seminars entitled “Is it Time for a Pullback, Correction, or a Bear Market?”, here is a quick recap:
- Pullbacks, Corrections, and Bear Markets all signify a move down of 5, 10, or 20%, respectively, from a recent peak. They may sound scary but a Pullback/Correction might actually be a very healthy thing because it may signify that the underlying asset’s valuation is getting back in line with fundamentals. In other words, Pullbacks and Corrections are different from Bear markets in that they may be simply a “pause” that refreshes an otherwise healthy Bull!
- Diversification plays a huge role to a balanced portfolio. The end of September and beginning of October saw a significant Pullback in equity indices, e.g. Russell 2000 Small Cap, S&P500, etc. However, other asset classes were not exhibiting same price movements. In fact, some fixed income indices experienced no pull back and traded at all-time highs. Alternatives also experienced non-correlation benefits. The media (i.e. CNBC) would have you believe that investing begins and ends with only large cap domestic stocks. Diversified investors don’t need to get caught up in their obsession.
- History shows that Bull markets typically last greater than 5 years on average and Bears about a quarter of that. Bear markets experience more volatility, given the fear that usually surfaces during these times. Bull markets don’t end based on a particular time frame, but instead end from an external shock (e.g. overvaluation/bubbles, inflation, etc).
- Bull & Bear markets are driven by greed and fear as much as economic fundamentals. Humans are not wired for disciplined investing, hence investors can help themselves gain discipline by using a wealth manager like DWM to focus on the things that one can control, and avoid emotional, poor decisions based on things one cannot control.
- Trying to predict short-term markets is virtually impossible. Markets don’t necessarily correlate with current economic data. The world has changed and old formulas and rules of thumb may not apply. Global concerns can cause investors’ appetite for risk to diminish overnight. However, over the long-term, the markets have rewarded discipline, through world events of all types.
- Trying to time the market is a fool’s game. Studies show that missing just a few days of strong returns can drastically impact overall performance.
- Your financial adviser should help you focus on what you can control. This includes creating both a financial plan and an investment plan. You also need to stress test these plans. And, then you need to review your risk profile- which is a combination of risk capacity, risk tolerance, and risk perception.
- The markets cannot be controlled, but asset allocation can be. Asset allocation is the primary driver of returns. Once you have your risk profile, you are in a position to construct an appropriate asset allocation target mix. Use of multiple asset classes (equities, fixed income, alts) lead to non-correlation benefits. Non-correlation leads to a smoothing effect to your return profile which means smaller downsides. Smaller downsides lead to better geometric compounding, hence better LONG-TERM RESULTS. The chart below shows the impact of downside volatility and why one wants to avoid that.
- Focus on things you can control:
- Create an investment plan to fit your needs and risk tolerance
- Identify an appropriate asset allocation target mix
- Structure a well-balanced, diversified portfolio
- Reduce expenses through low turnover and via passive investments where available
- Minimize taxes by asset location, tax loss harvesting, etc.
- Rebalance on a regular basis, taking advantage of market over-reactions by buying at low points of the market cycle and selling a high points
- Stay Invested
Using a dedicated and caring financial advisor can keep you focused on the above items and more. Most importantly, an advisor like DWM can keep you and your portfolio disciplined so you can reach your long-term financial goals.