Supreme Court Overturns Ban on Sports Gambling

NBA slot machine

On Monday, the Supreme Court struck down the 1992 federal law that said states couldn’t “sponsor, advertise, promote, license or authorize” sports gambling. The ruling in Murphy vs. NCAA agreed with New Jersey that the law was an intrusion into states’ rights to regulate activity within their borders. NJ had waged a six-year battle against the NCAA, NBA, NFL, MLB and NHL to allow sports betting. NJ will now join Nevada as the two states with legalized gambling. More will certainly follow. Illinois and South Carolina have already introduced bills and are moving towards legalization.

The states, the leagues and lots of others are all licking their chops to participate. The American Gaming Association estimates that $150 billion is wagered every year on illegal bets. Now, sports gambling could become more widespread, more systematic with an even larger market. Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, believes that the overall value of sports franchises has doubled overnight. “It will increase interest in the arena or stadium, it will increase the viewership for customers online, and help traditional television networks.”

The NBA has discussed with state officials what it calls an “integrity fee” of 1% on all betting. The integrity fee would be needed, in part, to pay for more assistance to league officials to keep the league honest, thus policing players and coaches so that games are not “thrown” to win bets. MLB has proposed a .25% integrity fee. Ted Leonsis, owner of both the Washington Capitals and Wizards, said that the sport franchises need to be paid “equitably” for the content and “intellectual property” they provide to television.

Pennsylvania last year passed legislation to allow sports betting, which included a 36% tax on sports betting revenue. Nevada’s rate is 6.75%. While some states may resist on moral grounds (Utah’s anti-gambling stance is written into its constitution), most will jump on the bandwagon as soon as possible. It has been estimated that $245 billion in legalized sports betting could generate $16 billion in additional state tax income.

Sports data companies, like Sportradar and gambling companies, like MGM and Caesars Entertainment, are hoping to cash in. The betting public can now come out of the “underground” market. Legal bookmakers should do well-Nevada sportsbooks haven’t had a losing month since 2013.

And what about the players and their salaries? If the NBA received a 1% fee, under the current union contract, half of that would be owed to the players. So, if $50 billion of NBA related sports betting produced a $500 million “bonus”, half of that would go to the players. And, this extra money might raise the salary cap and cause crazy gyrations with many top players changing teams.

However, there’s only so much money to go around. Last year, Nevada’s sportsbooks had a 5% profit margin, according to the state’s gaming board. A 1% “integrity fee” would represent 20% of the profit. With everyone fighting for their piece of the pie, legalized gambling may not take off as quickly as expected.

Joe Asher, chief executive of William Hill US, part of a major British sports betting operation, cautions that tax rates and league fees could add to the complexities: “It’s not going to be easy to move customers from the black market into the legal market.” Time will tell.

The Money Talk

It’s no secret that today’s standard high school and college curriculums are missing a few very important details. One of the most overlooked areas is basic financial education. Discussing finances with your children can be a difficult topic to broach, but it is critical to their success in the long run.

One common misconception of having “the money talk” is the idea that kids must be sheltered from financial issues. In some instances this is absolutely true, but having a basic discussion about finances and instilling good values in your children is important. “The money talk” shouldn’t be seen as taboo, but rather as an opportunity to guide your kids and help them navigate potentially tricky financial issues and decisions that arise.

Here are some tips to help as you approach “the money talk.”

 

1.Be honest.

 

Chances are that at some point in your life, you’ve experienced highs and lows in your finances. No need to hide it! These experiences provide a learning opportunity for your kids and allow you to be open and frank about the reality of financial decisions—they can handle it.

If you ran up debts in your past and had difficulty paying these back, this serves as an excellent teaching moment. Learning from those you respect can be just as effective as learning the lesson on your own.

Also, this may go without saying, but be careful not to spread falsehoods about your current financial situation. Remember, your kids can handle it and will almost always know when you’re not being completely honest with them.

 

2. Talk in values, not figures.

 

If you’re hesitant to share your financial situation with your children, that is normal. You are certainly not alone on this, but it doesn’t have to be scary. The good news is your kids don’t always want to know (or need to know) every detail of your financial life. Don’t sweat the small stuff—instead, focus on teaching them the basics. Ask yourself, what do they need to know, and what is often missed in standard education? Children should have a solid understanding of concepts such as saving, budgeting, paying down debt, developing healthy spending habits, and compounding interest.

 

3. Use real-world experiences.

 

Life is full of sporadic but important financial lessons that can be found in everyday experiences. It’s up to you to look for these opportunities and expand on them with your children.

If you’re going to the bank, you may consider taking your children with you. This is a great time to demonstrate how transactions work and, if applicable, how an ATM works. To take it a step further, you may even begin the discussion on how money can generate interest.

When your children start their first jobs and start receiving paychecks, this is a convenient time to discuss the importance of budgeting, paying bills, and taxes. Talk through what their goals are for each paycheck and how much they may need to save in order to accomplish these goals.

If you are planning a family trip, consider letting them in on the budgeting. Showing them your budget, planning activities you want to accomplish with this budget, and building a trip around this information will help make financial planning seem tangible to them. This may also be a good time to remind your kids that goals often require sacrifice, and not every trip activity will be accomplished.

Try giving your kids an allowance and taking them to the grocery store. The grocery store can be a clear example of “needs” vs. “wants.” Your children need nutrients but most certainly would like to have a few candies as well. However, with a set allowance, they won’t be able to afford them all!

In closing, whether you realize it or not, you play an important role in your children’s financial future. In their early years, they rely heavily on you for financial advice to help them form healthy financial habits (and the occasional $20 bill for the movies). At DWM, we feel it is essential to educate your children about finances early on, so they can be better prepared for the future. That’s why we created our new Emerging Investor program to help younger folks invest early on and get started on the path to financial freedom! To learn more about this exciting new program, check out the full description here: http://dwmgmt.com/blogs/123-2017-11-29-20-49-47.html.

Put Longevity into Your Planning

We’re living longer.  Back in 1935, when Social Security was started, there were 8 million Americans 65 or older.  Today, there are 50 million and by 2060 there will be 100 million 65 and older. It is projected that in 2033, the population of 65 and older will, for the first time, outnumber those under 18.

In addition, there is a better than average chance that 65 year old investors with at least $1 million of investable assets will reach age 100. These folks not only have enough money to cover rising costs, they are also generally more physically fit, healthier and engaged.  BTW- May is Older Americans Month, with a theme of “Engage at Every Age.”

Longevity is having and will have a huge impact not only on social security but also on long-term financial planning.  The trust fund for social security retirement benefits is expected to be depleted by 2034.  After that, the program is projected to pay out about 75% of benefits.  At that time, the ratio of workers paying into Social Security, as compared to those receiving benefits, is projected to drop from 2.8 now to 2.1 then. Last month, Ginny provided information on social security including possible fixes http://www.dwmgmt.com/blogs/142-happy-national-social-security-month-.html.  We hope Washington will enact some appropriate changes soon, though we can’t control that process.

We can, however, control our own financial planning.  Here are some general tips on incorporating longevity into your planning:

  1. Plan based on living longer. For those of you in great health, use an eventual age past the actuarial age, perhaps even age 100.  Your plan may end sooner, but let’s make sure the plan is designed for you to have sufficient funds during your life time.
  2. Plan on your normal retirement expenses continuing until at least age 90. Most older Americans we know are engaged. They are working and volunteering, traveling, mentoring, learning, and participating in activities that enrich their physical, mental and emotional well-being.  Don’t expect your normal expenses to start declining before age 90.
  3. Plan on health care costs escalating faster than inflation. Investors worldwide agree that health expenses are their biggest financial concern related to longevity. This worry is most acute in the U.S. with 69% listing it as their number one worry, versus 52% globally.  We are currently using 6% as the estimated annual increase in health care costs in our planning for clients.
  4. Review your long-term care strategy early. Long-term care costs can be huge.  On the other hand, your plan might “end” without you ever needing long-term care.  What would be the cost and best way to insure? Should you self-insure?  Should you keep your current policy?  Should you modify it?  Every financial plan needs to address long-term care and develop an appropriate strategy.
  5. Use an ample estimate for inflation. Inflation can have a huge impact on expenses over a long period of time.  You should stress test the plan at inflation rates above 2%, such as 3% or higher.
  6. Use a realistic real return for investments. The real return for your investments is defined as your total return (which is the price change over the period + dividends/interest) less inflation.  From 1950 to 2009, the real return was 7%; composed of an 11% total return less 4% inflation.  Of course, the 50s, 80s and 90s all had double digit real returns.  Today, it’s a good idea for you to stress test your plan projections using lower real return assumptions like 2.5% to 4%, depending on your time horizon and asset allocation.
  7. Consider separating travel goals into two parts. When you are retired and mobile, your travel will likely be primarily for you (and your significant other) and may include your children and/or grandchildren. As you get older and can’t travel easily yourself, you might still provide a second travel goal to cover transportation of the kids and grandkids to come visit you.
  8. Don’t count on too much from Social Security. We work with successful people of all ages.  We think that long-term social security benefits may be subject in the future to some “means test,” perhaps the same way that Medicare Part B premium costs are tied to taxable income.  The younger you are now and more financially successful you are in your life will likely reduce the amount of social security you will eventually receive.  If you are not starting social security soon, consider using discounted values of future social security benefits in your planning.
  9. Work to have a planning graph that doesn’t go “downhill.” Our financial goal plans show a graph of portfolio value over time, beginning now until your plan ends.  If expenses and taxes exceed income and investment earnings in any year, then the portfolio declines.  If that situation continues, then the graph looks as if it is heading “downhill.”  A solid plan results in the graph moving uphill over time or at least staying level.  A solid plan therefore reduces anxiety about longevity as, year by year, the portfolio value stays “solid” without diminishing.

 

Just like possible changes in social security, none of us can control our future health or when our plan will end.  We can however, develop, monitor and maintain a long-term financial plan that will provide us with the best chances for financial success by recognizing the possibilities of longevity and incorporating it into all aspects of our planning.  We can also adopt and/or confirm an objective to “Engage at Every Age” for our own well-being, as well as making a difference in other’s lives.   If you have any questions, please give us a call.

 

At DWM, our job is wealth management. We look to help our clients secure their financial futures through comprehensive financial planning and prudent investment management. Today, I’d like to focus on the investment management part which adheres to our philosophy of protection first, growth second.

Some readers may be familiar with DWM’s approach to investment management. At its core, it starts with the identification of our clients’ goals and constraints. We do this by identifying their goals, risk tolerance, return objectives, income needs, time horizon, and other special requirements. As every client is unique, so is each client portfolio.

We then match the characteristics of their goals and constraints with a specific Asset Allocation mix tailored to them. For example, x% equities via the DWM Core Equity Portfolio, y% fixed income via the DWM Core Fixed Income Portfolio, and z% alternatives via the DWM Liquid Alternatives Portfolio.

But many of our readers may not know the logistics of building those three DWM exclusive portfolios. Here is a little bit of the secret sauce:

The three major asset classes of equities, fixed income, and alternatives are further broken down into subclasses, which also have different exposures, risks, and potential returns. For example, we divide the equity portfolio into different sectors and market capitalizations, as well as between domestic and foreign stocks. We also pay attention to value vs growth. Then, in the fixed income portfolio, we split out exposure into government debt, corporate debt, and international debt, while paying special attention to credit risk and duration.

From there, there are several ways to go about choosing the securities to fulfill the subclasses. Our affiliation with Charles Schwab & Co- and its investment platform which makes most of the public investment universe available to us, there are lots of securities – some great, some not so great – to choose from.We further filter by looking at the following:

  • What type of exposure do we want to have in that subclass (for example, is market-cap weighted okay or is better to use a different methodology like factor-weighting)?
  • Total price to own and trade that security (e.g. the Operating Expense Ratio “OER” and ticket charge if applicable)
  • Volume: does the security trade enough for our firm to take a position for our clients’ portfolios
  • Security vehicle (ETF or Mutual Fund): both come with different characteristics
  • How do the securities complement one another, keeping in mind that non-correlating assets maximize your diversification benefits

It should be noted that from a risk management perspective we aren’t big fans of individual stocks. In fact, we began phasing out the use of individual stocks within our DWM-managed portfolios over a decade ago. Why?

  1. Company-specific risk: When allocating percentages of your portfolio to individual stocks, you run the possibility of the company represented by said stock going bankrupt or having a similar setback that can greatly increase the overall risk of your portfolio.
  2. More diversification with low-cost mutual funds and exchange-traded funds: With MFs and ETFs, we can incorporate the exposures to different individual stocks in one bundle, without having to have the aforementioned company-specific risk.

As you can now see, a lot goes into building and maintaining a portfolio. Once the initial portfolio is established with the appropriate weights to various investment style exposures, it is anything but “set and forget”. These “weights” or allocations to asset classes and the underlying investment styles can significantly fluctuate and will need to be rebalanced. Or we may find that we want more or less exposure to a specific area and thus adjustments are needed. Furthermore, new products – some great, some not so great – come to the market every day. If we identify one that is potentially a better fit to our model and it passes our due diligence process, we will make changes accordingly, whereby we execute trades via our sophisticated channels.

In conclusion, portfolio management is constantly evolving. Ongoing education and research is paramount to a solid investment management practice. At DWM, we don’t take that responsibility lightly. Through diligence and care, we seek to help our investors make their money work harder by eliminating the unforeseen landmines in their portfolio. Diversification, low-cost mutual funds/ETFs, and consistent portfolio monitoring are wonderful tools that DWM implements to help accomplish this hefty task, and keep our clients on track to meeting their financial goals.

Happy National Social Security Month!

Many Americans are worried about the state of Social Security and the possibility that benefits will be reduced or even disappear in the future. Even those already collecting Social Security benefits may be concerned that their monthly check could be impacted by the swelling population of beneficiaries and the inability of the taxes collected from the current workforce to keep up with the demand.

Every April, the Social Security Administration celebrates with a month of highlighting the agency’s mission to “promote economic security” and educating all of us on their programs and services. Social Security was originally created by President Roosevelt in 1935, as part of his New Deal plan, to develop a comprehensive social insurance program. There are three parts to the benefits in Social Security – retirement benefits, survivor and death benefits and disability benefits. This is a pay-as-you-go system, so the payroll taxes paid by the workers and employers today fund the benefits for the beneficiaries of the three SS programs.

Social Security is the single largest federal program and accounts for around 24% of all federal spending. According to the most recent report from the Social Security Administration, the benefits paid out by the Social Security retirement program will be more than what’s paid in, starting in 2020. When the program started in 1935, many workers paid into the program, but few lived long enough after retirement age to collect much in the way of benefits. The Social Security Trust Fund was created when the taxes collected surpassed benefits that were paid out. However, in 2010, the government starting dipping into these reserves to address the insufficient revenue. This trust fund is expected to be completely depleted by 2034 and benefits could be reduced to 75%-80% of current payments, unless something changes that will increase the money going into the trust fund or decrease the amounts being paid out.

We have all heard about Social Security benefits running out and have heard about the need for reform. We jokingly thank the Millenials for supporting something from which they may never recoup any income. But it really is a serious issue for the many Americans who have not saved enough on their own. As Investment News contributor, Mary Beth Franklin, notes, “By 2030, all baby boomers will be older than 65, meaning one in every five U.S. residents will be of retirement age”. This, of course, will put critical stress on the entire Social Security program.

So what can be done? Each year, the Social Security trustees use their annual reports to recommend that lawmakers address the projected trust fund shortfalls. We have heard about “means testing” for benefits, which already impacts Medicare Part B premiums. Means testing could take the form of more income taxes, a reduction in benefits, a surtax or some other method to correct the program shortfalls. Another possible solution talks about tying Social Security benefit checks to prices rather than wages, as price increases are slower than wage growth. This could correct shortfalls over time, but may present other undesirable effects. In a recent article, Ramesh Ponnuru, a Bloomberg View columnist, notes, “An implication of that change [using prices over wages] is that over time Social Security would replace a smaller and smaller portion of the income people made during their working lives.”

Congress is looking at a tactic to address the problem of insufficient retirement savings with a bi-partisan (remember that word?) bill, the Retirement Enhancement and Savings Act (RESA). This legislation would create a retirement savings program allowing access for workers who may not currently contribute to an employer-sponsored retirement plan. It would also offer a collective ‘multi-employer plan’ (MEP) that allows small businesses to share in the costs of plan administration and make it easier for them to offer retirement savings plans to their employees. The more that Americans can save on their own, the less of an impact SS benefit shortfalls will have.

We will continue to watch and wait for the legislators and administrators to solve this problem with Social Security. At DWM, we are all about helping you determine ways to save more, protect that savings and then invest it to have appropriate growth to achieve your goals. We work hard to help our “vintage” clients evaluate all of their options and strategies when applying for Social Security benefits. Benefits taken at the earliest age of 62 will reduce your lifetime benefits, while waiting to begin until the maximum age of 70 can increase your benefits by 8% a year after Full Retirement Age (FRA) is reached. We evaluate which is the most effective strategy for each client – whether waiting and maximizing your benefits or starting benefits at FRA and possibly avoiding any benefit changes that may occur. There is much to consider, but we are here to help navigate the sign-up, the strategy choices and all of the tax implications involved. Please let us know if we can help enhance YOUR retirement savings!

Signatures are Becoming Extinct

Later this month, Visa, Mastercard, Amex, Target will no longer require signatures to complete credit card transactions. Walmart and other credit card companies and retailers will soon follow. It’s a new ball game now that cards are embedded with computer chips. Signatures are becoming extinct. Personal checks are on their way out. Could genuine handwritten notes be next?

Signatures have been part of our human identity and creativity for thousands of years, dating back to the Sumerians and Egyptians. The English Parliament elevated the status of signatures in 1677 by enacting the State of Frauds in 1677 Act which required all contracts to be signed. By 1776, when John Hancock signed the Declaration of Independence, the signature was in its full glory for binding a contract and exhibiting the signer’s creativity. Fast forward to 2000 when President Bill Clinton signed the E-Sign Act paving the way for eSignature technologies to use digital signatures to sign contracts.

Credit card companies, which cover the costs of credit card fraud, started adding microchips more than a decade ago to reduce fraud. Prior to chips, most retailers required signatures on all purchases and could be held liable (for a fraud) if they failed to notice that the signature on the receipt did not match the one of the back of customer’s card.

Then, with online shopping, card networks started the transition to eliminate signatures. Typically, purchases less than $25 or $50 did not require signatures. However, some card issuers continued to require signatures, so many merchants just kept getting signatures on all transactions. Now, with chip technology leading the way, the card networks are indicating that signatures are obsolete. This will speed up the checkout line, which will make everyone happy.

Some merchants may continue to ask for signatures. Some believe customers have the signature built into their muscle memory of the purchasing process. Further, they are concerned that eliminating signatures might impact workers’ tips. Lastly, some like to keep the signature as evidence that the customer received the services or goods when fighting fraud claims.

Even so, signatures are becoming extinct and will be likely be reserved for special situations, like a house purchase, a marriage license or birth certificate. Even celebrity autographs are now being replaced by “selfies.”

Which leads us to genuine handwritten notes. We know how important a handwritten “Thank you” or sympathy card is. Like homemade bread and hand-knitted socks, handwritten notes make a huge impact. Unfortunately, all of us are pressed for time. Not to worry, you can now fake a handwritten note using online services:

Handiemail. You type a letter, send it to Handiemail with the address of the recipient and $10. Within a couple of days, your letter, handwritten on specialty paper and hand-addressed in a premium envelope with a first-class stamp is delivered.
Inkly. With Inkly, you select a card design, type your message, snap it with your phone, upload to the app and Inkly sends it out for you.
Bond. Starting at $3, you can send an elegant handwritten note with a choice of five handwriting styles to be delivered to the recipient in a suitably classy envelope. Also, for $500 you can visit a Bond HQ where staff will help you improve your own handwriting.
Handwrytten. This is another app which offers a range of classy cards, which the company considers “hipster-friendly, limited-print letterpress designs.” Each letter created has “truly organic effect.”
Yes, keyboards seem to be replacing pens. A recent study showed that one of three respondents had not written anything by hand in the last six months. On average, they had not put pen to paper in the last 41 days. With information technology, handwritten copy is fast disappearing.

However, there is some pushback. Pens and keyboards apparently bring into play very different cognitive skills. “Handwriting is a complex task which requires directing the movement of the pen by thought,” according to Edouard Gentaz, professor development psychology at the University of Geneva. He continues, “Children take several years to master this precise motor exercise.” On the other hand, operating a keyboard is a simple task; easy for children to learn.

In 2000, work in the neurosciences indicated that mastering cursive writing was a key step in overall cognitive development. Studies have also shown that note-taking with a pen, rather than a laptop, gives students a better grasp of the subject.

IT continues to change our world. Yet, Professor Gentaz believes that handwriting will persist, “Touchscreens and styluses are taking us back to handwriting. Our love affair with keyboards may not last.” Time will tell.

DWM 1Q18 Market Commentary


In our last quarterly commentary, we cautioned not to get complacent, overconfident, or “too far out over your skis”. It’s ironic how just three months later, many investors’ emotions are just the opposite: unsure, cautious, and even scared. And rightly so, given the extreme up and downs for the first quarter of 2018. The stock market was in a classic “melt-up” state in January, only to quickly drop into correction territory in early February, then bounce and fall and bounce again from there. Yes, as I mentioned in my February 12th blog, volatility is back and here to stay (at least for the near future)!

Before looking ahead, let’s see how the major asset classes fared in 1Q18:

Equities: The S&P500 had its first quarterly loss since 2015, falling 0.76%. On the other side of the globe, developed countries also suffered, evidenced with the MSCI AC World Index registering a -0.88% return. Emerging markets were a stand-out, up 1.28%*. In a turn of events, smaller caps significantly outperformed larger caps. Much of this has to do with the trade war fears, i.e. many feel that smaller domestic companies will be less affected than some of the bigger domestic companies that rely on imports. Growth continued to outperform value. However, that gap narrowed in the last couple of weeks with some of the biggest cap-weighted tech names getting drubbed, including Facebook because of their user-data controversy and Trump’s monopolistic tweets at Amazon.

Fixed Income: Yields went up, powered by increasing expectations for growth and inflation in the wake of the recent $1.5 trillion tax cut. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose from 2.4% to 2.7%. When bond rates go up, prices go down. So not surprising the total return for the most popular bond proxy, the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, showed a 1.46% drop. Fortunately, for those with international exposure, you fared better. The Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index rose 1.37%, helped by a weakening U.S. dollar (-2.59%**) pushing up local currency denominated bonds.

Alternatives: The Credit Suisse Liquid Alternative Beta Index, our chosen proxy for alternatives, was down 1.72%. Losers in the alternative arena include: trend-following strategies, like managed futures (-5.08%***), that don’t do well in whipsaw environments like 1Q18, and, MLPs, which were under duress primarily due to a tax decision which we think was overdone. Winners include gold****, which was up +1.76% for its safe haven status, and insurance-linked funds† (+1.60%), which have hardly any correlation to the financial markets.

In conclusion, most balanced investors are seeing quarterly losses, albeit small, for the first time in a while. So where do we go from here?

Inflation concerns were the main culprit to the February sell-off, but there are other concerns weighing upon the market now: fears of a trade war brought on by tariffs, escalated scrutiny of technology giants, new Fed leadership, increasing interest rates, stock valuation levels, and a bull market long in the tooth in its 10th year.

Opposite these worries is an incredibly hot economy right now, supported by the tax cut which should boost corporate earnings to big heights. In fact, FactSet has projected earnings for S&P500 companies to increase 17% in 1Q18 from 1Q17!

And, whereas there has been much dialogue regarding how the S&P500 has been trading at lofty valuations, the recent move of stock prices downward has really been quite healthy! It has put valuations back in-line with historical averages. In fact, the forward 12-month PE (Price-to-Equity Ratio) of the S&P500 at the time of this writing is almost identical to its 25-yr average of 16.1. International stocks, as represented by the MSCI ACW ex-US is even more appealing, trading at a 13.3 forward PE.

We don’t think inflation will get out of hand. Even with unemployment around all-time lows, wage growth is barely moving up. So we doubt that we’ll see inflation tick over 2¼%. That said, we do think the Fed will continue to raise rates. Frankly, they need to take advantage of a good economy to bring rates up closer to “normal” so that they have some fire-power in the event of future slow economic times. But that doesn’t mean they’ll be overly aggressive. The new Fed Head, Jerome Powell, like his predecessor, most likely will be easy on the brakes, keeping focus on how the Fed actions play off within the market.

Put it all-together and it seems like we’re in a tug-of-war of sorts between the positives and the negatives. At DWM, we feel like the positives will outweigh the negatives and are cautiously optimistic for full year 2018 returns in the black, but nothing can be guaranteed. The only couple things one can really count on are:

1.Continued volatility. After an abnormally stable 2017 that saw little whipsaw, 2018’s volatility is more reminiscent to the historical average of the last few decades. Back to “normal”.

2.DWM keeping its clients informed and embracing events as they unfold, keeping portfolios positioned and financial plans updated to weather what’s next.
Here’s looking to what 2Q18 brings us!

Brett M. Detterbeck, CFA, CFP®

DETTERBECK WEALTH MANAGEMENT

*represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index

**represented by the WSJ Dollar Index

***represented by the Credit Suisse Managed Futures Strategy Fund

****represented by the iShares Gold Trust

†represented by the Pioneer ILS Interval Fund

Our Children Are Our Future

This Holy Week in the Christian world is an excellent time to put last Saturday’s “March for Our Lives” in perspective. While millions of Americans found the marches for gun control inspiring, many others were skeptical wondering “What do these kids know?” Older people have been groaning about the young in politics for centuries. Yet, in the late 19th century, during a very dark political time for the U.S., the young people helped save democracy. Can they do it again?

Young people have always been involved in American politics, primarily as unpaid labor doing work behind the scenes; making posters, handing out campaign information, running errands and other unglamorous jobs. The young were never allowed to champion themselves or their opinions, being told by established politicians to simply follow the party’s platform.

At the end of the 19th century, according to John Grinspan, Smithsonian historian and author, young people cried out to be heard on their issues. A new generation of young people denounced current leaders and partisanship. They demanded reforms. In 1898, one New Yorker summarized their movement as “the younger generation hates both parties equally.”

At the start of the 20th century, the youth movement put an end to extreme polarization; forcing both parties to pursue its issues and concerns. Independent young voters became a decisive third force, with enough clout to swing close elections. Politicians supported them and their agenda, creating the Progressive Era, which included cleaning up cities and passing laws protecting workers. Though unable to personally vote, women played a key role. Women worked to refocus American life toward social issues, built schools and fought child labor.

Mr. Grinspan argues that the key to understanding youth politics is that young people can’t “focus simply on benefits for the young.” Youth is temporary and gains are passed on. The high school seniors who marched Saturday across the country will hopefully make their schools safer well after they have graduated. Mr. Grinspan concludes that the young should set the nation’s political agenda as they will be here much longer than the rest of us.

Today’s young have much work to do. The solutions the marchers want certainly depend on winning elections. Ultimately, it’s not about standing up to be heard, but about accomplishing political change. These kids didn’t spontaneously emerge from Florida a month ago. They and millions like them were born after 9/11. They have grown up with the worry of guns in their classrooms and the threat of terrorism for their entire lifetime. Many have perceived that our grown-up generations have been stripping our nation’s resources, allowed or assisted in the destruction of the middle class, added trillions of dollars of debt to our nation’s finances and have allowed politics to sink into tribalism. They’ve been watching us and our mistakes and they’ve decided it’s not for them. We all have much to learn from these children and their perspective and they deserve our support.

In honor of Holy Week, it seems a very appropriate time to read Matthew 19:13-14 (from the new living translation): “Then the little children were brought to Jesus for Him to place His hands on them and pray for them; and the disciples rebuked those who brought them. But Jesus said, ‘Let the children come to me. Don’t stop them! For the Kingdom of Heaven belongs to those who are like these children.’”

DWM wishes you and your family a wonderful Easter weekend!!

Data Breach Deja Vu

facebook-data-dislikeSocial media behemoth Facebook landed itself in hot water this week when it was revealed that the company allowed a third-party firm to gain access to user data. This latest scandal comes amid a slew of serious data concerns and shows just how careful we need to be with our information in this digital age. In the world of mobile devices, social media, and the cloud, it can be disconcerting to think that your personal information might just be floating around out there.

The data firm, Cambridge Analytica (CA), accessed information from tens of millions of Facebook users without their permission and “improperly” stored this data for years, despite CA’s claim that the sensitive data had been destroyed. Furthermore, CA, who is known for supplying marketing data for political campaigns, is believed to have harvested this information for political campaigns after 2013.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Facebook bears a huge amount of blame for allowing CA to get its data to begin with. However, reports calling CA’s data harvesting a “leak,” a “hack,” or a serious violation of Facebook policy are all, unfortunately, incorrect. All of the information collected by the company was information that Facebook had freely allowed app developers to access.

Now, an investigation is being launched to find out exactly who knew about this large-scale improper data usage and when they knew about it. According to Facebook, this serious slipup should not be considered a data breach, because the data firm abused user data that was openly shared with third parties. However, I think we can all agree that sharing user data with third-party firms opened up the floodgates for illegal data breaches and abuse of personal information – as seen by Equifax in June of 2017. While Facebook’s stock takes a nosedive and the company tries desperately to get out in front of this PR nightmare, the rest of us are left reflecting on how our sensitive data is being handled and what measures are being taken to protect it.

As a common rule of thumb, it should be noted that you should never keep sensitive information on any social media platform. This includes but not limited to phone numbers, addresses and even email addresses. While your email address, and sometimes phone numbers, are needed for the account setup in many social media platforms, this information should never be made viewable by friends or followers on any social media platform

With DWM, you don’t have to spend any sleepless nights wondering about how your personal and financial information is being handled. Our firm and our preferred custodian, Charles Schwab, would never jeopardize our clients’ information by handing out data to third parties. You can feel confident knowing that your information will never be released to any outside parties for any reason (except with your explicit permission).

You may want to consider deactivating your Facebook account, but you can rest assured that your financial information with DWM is safe and secure.

LOOKING THROUGH THE GENDER LENS

Woman_with_wealth.jpgLast week, we celebrated International Women’s Day. Adopted by the UN in 1975, we recognize this global day of advocacy to celebrate women’s work and to promote women’s rights. It has been a troubling year hearing women’s stories of facing sexual harassment in the workplace and elsewhere, but yet a momentous year of watching women gain a collective voice against this treatment. The #Me Too movement has catapulted women’s rights to one of the top national conversations and focused attention on the goal to removing gender bias in many aspects of our culture. You’ve come a long way, baby, indeed!!

This conversation has also put the spotlight on the gender gap for pay and hiring practices. According to an article in Businessweek, working women still earn between 57% – 80% of the salary of a working man, depending on whether they are white, black or Hispanic. Women’s pay is catching up, but is predicted not to achieve equal status until 2058. This affects all of us, as women have less opportunity to save, contribute to Social Security and participate in the economy. Saving adequate retirement savings is harder for women. Women are able to save less for several reasons, the gap in pay being one of them. There may be career interruptions for children, a need to pay for child care while in the workplace, higher healthcare costs and, of course, women live longer, which all puts a strain on women’s ability to save for retirement and have adequate means when older.

Adding to the difficulty in obtaining adequate saving levels, research has shown that women are, on average, less risk tolerant in their financial decisions than men. According to Associate Professor from the University of Missouri Rui Yao, women and men do not think of investment risk differently, but income uncertainty affects women differently from men. That uncertainty may result in women keeping funds in asset allocations with lower expected returns to “buffer the risk of negative income shocks”. This can be a concern for any investor with low levels of risk tolerance, as they might have greater difficulty reaching their financial goals and building adequate retirement wealth because they are less likely to invest in more growth-oriented asset classes with bigger returns, like equities. “Risk tolerance is one of the most important factors that contributes to wealth accumulation and retirement,” said Rui Yao. At DWM, we review the risk tolerance of all of our clients very carefully. We make sure that their investment strategy matches well with their capacity for risk, as well as their tolerance for it, while making sure that they can achieve their goals for financial independence.

Despite fighting issues of sexual harassment and glass ceilings in the workplace, women have made some remarkable gains in their financial status. In 40% of American families, the primary breadwinner is a woman and, for the first time in history, women control the majority of personal wealth in the U.S. In fact 48% of all millionaires are women. Also, women will benefit immensely in the future transfer of wealth – from husbands who are older and die sooner or parents who now bestow equal inheritances to sons and daughters. Breadwinner women may control more wealth, but there is still a shortfall in other areas.

There are many arguments for equalizing our gender dynamics at home and at work – there is no doubt that enabling women to achieve their full potential is certainly better for women and their families. There is also a universal financial argument to be made. By some estimates, according to Sallie Krawchek of Ellevate Network, if women were fully engaged in the economy, GDP would increase by 9%! Ms. Krawchek’s article also cites multiple studies that conclude “companies with diverse leadership teams” outperform other companies on metrics including higher returns on capital, lower risk and greater innovation. This translates into healthier corporate environments that are rewarded on the bottom line. That is good for men, women and families! All of the reasons for closing the gender gap are important, but the financial benefits for everyone are significant and certainly can’t be considered controversial. As someone once said, “It’s the economy, stupid”!

While there remain roadblocks to women achieving equality in their financial status with men, we do think having these national conversations and educating both women and men on the benefits of empowering women will begin to make progress. We agree that deficiencies in retirement savings and the economic engagement of women are highly related and we hope changes are coming. At DWM, we look at the total wealth management for all of our clients equally and with consideration for every one of their life situations. We know that anything that has a positive effect on the financial success of women is good for us all.