Happy Labor Day: Fun Facts!

Labor Day in the 21st century means time for beaches, BBQ, ballgames and quality time with family and friends. For many, Labor Day signifies the last days of summer. But don’t worry, the official end of summer is September 21st so you still have some time to catch some waves and rays. Although Labor Day always falls on the first Monday of every September, there is a lot more to this holiday weekend than an extra day off from work and great sales. From a survey done by WalletHub, here are 10 facts about Labor Day that you may not know:

  1. 133 million Americans will enjoy a BBQ this Labor Day

 

  1. The average Labor Day shopper will spend $58

 

  1. 25% of Americans plan to get out of town

 

  1. The top three Labor Day destinations include New York City, Chicago, and Las Vegas

 

  1. Labor Day is America’s third favorite holiday behind Christmas/Chanukah and Memorial Day

 

  1. There are approximately 89 running races held over Labor Day weekend

 

  1. The number one hardest working city in America is San Francisco with an 8 hour average work day, and the laziest city in America is Columbia, SC with an average work day of 7.3 hours

 

  1. Labor Day is the unofficial end of hot dog season in America. From Memorial Day to Labor Day there are 818 hot dogs eaten per second

 

  1. Most Americans believe Labor Day is only an American holiday when really it was started in Canada

 

  1. Last but not least, yes, you really can wear white after Labor Day!

From everyone here at DWM, have a great Labor Day Weekend and enjoy some time with the family!

The End of Signing on the Dotted Line

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We all lead busy lives, so it’s important to save time and maximize efficiency whenever we can. The new eSignature feature from Charles Schwab allows you to review, electronically sign, and send back eligible forms to us, making a variety of processes quicker and easier than ever before.

At DWM, we always stay up to date with the latest technology and keep you informed, so we can ensure the best possible experience for our clients. As we learn more about today’s changing technology and the need to stay on top of cybersecurity, going digital allows sensitive client material to remain safely guarded, as well as providing an easier, less burdensome and more accurate onboarding process for everyone.

eSignature is accepted on many new account applications, maintenance forms, and managed account forms, such as:

  • Schwab One Personal accounts
  • Schwab One Trust Accounts
  • Company Retirement Accounts (CRA/Pension Trust)
  • Custodial/Minor IRA Applications
  • Account Closure Forms
  • Designated Beneficiary Plan Agreements
  • Investor Checking Accounts
  • IRA Distribution Forms
  • MoneyLink Applications
  • Transfer Your Account (Into or Out of Charles Schwab)

For a full list of eligible forms, click here. This time-saving eSignature feature is extremely efficient, and it’s easy to use, too! Simply follow the steps below and you’ll be well on your way to mastering electronic signatures.

1)When expecting a form for eSignature, keep an eye out for an email from Charles Schwab that states “Documents for Your Electronic Signature.”

2)Click “Review Documents” at the bottom of that email.

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3)Log into your Schwab account using your Schwab Alliance when prompted. If you don’t know your account information, let us know or contact Schwab Alliance at 1-800-515-2157.

4)Click “Agree/Continue” to agree to the eSignature terms and conditions.

5)Review the document and ensure that it is accurate before signing.

6)When you are ready, choose from two signing options: automatic signature or draw, in which you digitally “draw” your own signature.

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7)Click “Sign” in all places where signature or initial is needed.

8)Click “Finish” to complete the process. DWM will be notified promptly and you will then receive a confirmation email.

 

We could all use some time back in our day, so if you’d like to learn more about eSignature, reach out to us at any time or contact Schwab Alliance at 1-800-515-2157 for more information.

Bull Market Runs Come in All Lengths

 

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Let me help you with the details of the above chart- though it is difficult to read, it’s quite important.   This graph from First Trust reflects the historical performance of the S&P 500 index from 1926 through June 2018. The blue represents bull markets; the red bear markets. It’s obvious that there is a lot more blue on this chart than red. That’s why we encourage you to “stay invested” through the ups and downs of the markets in a risk appropriate, diversified portfolio.

There are 8 bear markets shown. These represent periods of time when markets went down 20% or more. The longest and largest, from 1929-1932, was caused by the Great Depression. This bear market lasted 2.8 years and represented a cumulative decline of 83.4% overall; 47% per year. Ouch. Other bear markets have been much tamer. The average bear market period for the eight periods shown above lasted 1.4 years with an average cumulative loss of 41%. The bear market in 2008-2009 caused by the financial crisis lasted 1.3 years, with a 51% cumulative decline, 41% per year.

There are 9 bull markets shown. The longest and largest occurred after World War II from 1948 to 1963. This bull market lasted 15.1 years and represented a cumulative total return of 936%, or 17% per year. The average bull market has lasted 9.1 years with a cumulative total return of 476%; 21% per year. Some bull markets have been as short as 2.5 years and there have been other longer bull markets of 12.8, 12.9 and 13.9 years.  Our current bull market started in Spring 2009 and has lasted 9.3 years, with a cumulative total return of 350%; 17.5% per year.

At DWM, we are asked the question: “How long can this bull market continue?” This question seems to be based on a concern that a bull market comes with a pre-ordained expiration date; when it runs out of whatever made it go. However, selling equities because a bull market run is longer than average has been a great way to miss out on lots of gains. Remember, bull market runs come in all lengths.

While a bull market may be technically defined as a period of time after a 20% drop (bear market) has reached its end, it’s probably healthier to view a bull market from an economic perspective. Barry Ritholtz in a Friday Bloomberg article defined a bull market as follows: “An extended period of time, typically lasting 10-20 years, driven by broad economic shifts that create an environment conducive to increasing corporate revenue and earnings. Its most dominant feature is the increasing willingness of investors to pay more and more for a dollar of earnings.” This is exactly what we have seen in periods after WWII, the 1980 and 1990s biotech boom and now the maturation of internet, software and mobile companies.

Bear markets are typically brought about by recessions; often when the markets have gotten overheated (such as the dot.com bubble bust in 2000). Bear markets can also be brought on by a financial crisis, as we had in 2008-2009. Recoveries from financial crises are quite different from recoveries from depressions.   A post crisis recovery is marked by slow and erratic economic growth, weak wage gains and disappointing retail sales. Furthermore, investors, after being burned, remain skittish for years. The 2008-2009 crisis scarred consumers and left them more determined to sock away funds.

Case in point, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday morning that the personal savings rate is up to 7.2% from the 3.3% estimated previously. The new number exceeds the 6.4% average savings rate since 1990 and is almost three time the savings rate in 2005. The “wealth effect” that we saw in the mid 2000s that increased spending and dropped savings rates, is not happening now. This news, along with the reduction in corporate taxes, historically low unemployment and continued increased corporate earnings bodes well for a continuation of the current Bull Market despite ongoing negative factors.

Yes, we don’t know how long this bull market will run. And, we’re not going to try to time it. We do know, at some point, this bull market run will come to its natural end. Before it does, we may see more pullbacks (declines of 5% or more) or corrections (declines of 10% or more).   Remember this graph- lots more blue than red- and stay invested.

Mother Nature is in Charge!

Americans are getting a little disaster weary.  From the horrific wildfires out west to torrential rains and flooding all summer in the east, it has been quite a year.  And in the south and east, we all know what August means…hurricane season is upon us!  Mother Nature is getting on our nerves in 2018!

How can we protect ourselves to minimize the risks to our homes, our property and our livelihoods?  Mitigating risks from catastrophic events starts with prevention and planning by both government and individuals.  Prevention can start with using damage-resistant building materials, having elevated home designs, enforcing safe building codes, developing flood plain management systems, securing or removing hazards ahead of storms and by having evacuation or escape plans in place.  FEMA has an 81 page guide of Mitigation Ideas to deal with earthquakes, landslides, floods, hurricanes, hail, lightning, tornadoes, severe winter weather and more.  https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1904-25045-2423/fema_mitigation_ideas_final_01252013.pdf  There are many threats coming from our environment, but many things that can be done to lessen some of the painful aftermath of these occurrences.

We certainly can use property & casualty insurance to plan and prepare for the worst.  In hurricane-prone areas, for example, we have riders for “named storm” or “wind and hail” coverage that comes with our homeowner’s insurance.  The costs of the insurance can be reduced by increasing the amount of a deductible you want to have or, in other words, how much you can afford to pay out of pocket for repairs after a storm.  We also look for extra coverage for those circumstances when there is a widespread event like a hurricane that may drive costs up with higher demand for labor and materials.  Homeowners may want to have an extended coverage rider built in to help with those higher costs.  It is important to evaluate what your risk tolerance is for these situations and how much you want to pay to transfer some of the risk to the insurance company.  If your home is destroyed or badly damaged, do you have a comfortable level of protection for you and your family?

There has been much discussion on the 50 year old National Flood Insurance Program, as well. President Trump recently signed the legislation to extend the debt-ridden program until November 30th.  That means not dealing with necessary reforms until after hurricane season and mid-term elections.  The federal program, which is some $20 billion in debt to the U.S. Treasury, offers subsidized flood insurance to coastal or flood-prone areas where private insurers have pulled out or made it unaffordable.   As it is, the NFIP provides coverage with caps on claims for homes at $250,000 and on property at $100,000.  Many higher-value property owners may choose to also carry “excess” flood insurance to bridge the gap between the federal program caps and the value of their homes and property.

Unfortunately, the reduced premiums from about 5 million NFIP flood insurance policies nationwide cannot adequately support the claims that have come from recent events, including storms like Sandy, Katrina, Harvey, Maria, Irma and Matthew.  And hurricanes aren’t the only cause of flooding.  We have seen some of these epic rainstorms cause significant inland flooding and damage.   As the head of the SC Department of Insurance said recently, “our entire state is in a flood-zone.”  And this may be true for many areas in the South, East and Midwest.  It is clear there is a need for a flood program that can provide support for affected residents after a storm, especially as we see changing climate conditions and rising sea levels. Lawmakers thus far have been unable to find a bi-partisan fix to the financially strained system.

As homeowners and members of our communities, we should certainly do our share to prepare for these natural events and make sure we have a solid plan in place for our families and our property.  We can maintain our property, keep our own emergency fund and can participate in the insurance coverages available to help protect us.  And we should hope and expect that our legislators – local, state and national- will compromise to find solutions to reform existing programs and to prepare disaster plans that can assist all of us in the event of a catastrophic event.

At DWM, we use a holistic approach to evaluating your financial plan, including risk management.  We will help you review all of your property & casualty insurance policies to ensure that you have appropriate coverage for you and your family.  Let’s hope Mother Nature stays peaceful for the rest of the year!

Innovation: Showcasing Efficiency and Tightening Security

Companies in the 21st century are constantly looking for way to move their services to the next level of the digital age. Accessibility, convenience, and speed are major factors that industry leaders always look to improve upon, and Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. is no different.

Over the past few weeks, Schwab has put on several presentations in cities across the nation to showcase their technological advancements in a series they call Schwab Solutions. At DWM, we were lucky enough to attend one of these presentations and learned of a lot of exciting new features and opportunities that we believe can assist our clients. Here are some of the highlights:

  • E-Signature->For existing clients looking to open a new account at Schwab, we can utilize a new process called e-signature to send the documents over to your Schwab portal. Simply let DWM know your intention to open a new account, and we can work up the forms to do so. Once the forms are ready, we can send a request for your e-signature, which will send a notification to your Schwab Alliance account. This will assist in opening your account faster, more securely, and with no paper waste!
  • E-Approval->For check and journal requests (moving money from one account to another at Schwab), we can follow a very similar process to the e-signature process, with e-approval! Once again this reduces processing time, paper waste, and improves document accuracy. Schwab is also working to bring this feature to MoneyLink requests, so stay tuned for that improvement!
  • Mobile Deposit->The Schwab app also allows investors to scan/take a picture of the front and back of a check and upload them for deposit, usually within the same day!
  • The Schwab platform itself is receiving an overhaul in the coming months, which should provide clients with a much sleeker, more intuitive experience. A major difference to come will be a personal value chart, which will display a simplified net worth statistic based on the accounts at Schwab, as well as the ability to add in accounts outside of Schwab (think 401ks)!
  • In addition to the aesthetical changes, the Schwab portal now has much more client interactivity than before, which will allow investors to update various information on their accounts all from within the website, no paperwork involved. These various services include:
    • Updating accounts in case of address change
    • Beneficiary updates on IRAs
    • Tax withholding percentages for IRAs

As with any technological advancement, new security challenges often emerge, and Schwab, as well as DWM, are your first line of defense against these threats. For Schwab’s part, they have bumped up security in some major ways:

  • Whenever a new device is used to access a Schwab portal, a text or e-mail is sent (depending on how the security of the specific account is set-up), to ensure that fraudsters are not trying to access your account information electronically.
  • In addition, Schwab offers a security feature called two-factor authentication, which allows for an app on your phone to provide a six-digit code to follow your Schwab Alliance password, further ensuring that only the account holder can access their sensitive information.
  • Finally, one further security measure clients can choose to utilize is called Schwab Voice ID. With this service, a client calls in and answers some basic questions to the Schwab Alliance team, through which their Voice Biometrics system analyzes the quality of your voice. Then, if any suspicious activity occurs in your accounts, Schwab will call and verify the activity with you, using the Biometrics system to ensure that the voice on that end of the line is actually the account holder.

As far as DWM goes, our stance and determination in protecting our clients’ information remains resolute. We are completely committed to client security, and will continue to both provide education to keep our clients informed of rising threats, as well as keeping ourselves up-to-date about viral issues and staying abreast of any suspicious account behavior. For example, one of the most dangerous areas regarding theft and fraud currently going on are real estate scams. Hijackers will find a way into legitmate e-mail threads regarding wire information for a client buying property, and provide phony wire information. As a result, verbal verification is the new normal. As part of our safeguarding protocol, DWM will be calling the client and/or the title company to verify these wire instructions to ensure that everything goes as planned.

At DWM, we are passionate about protecting our clients and helping them shape their financial future, worry-free. This is seen throughout our wealth management process, from investing to account management, to financial planning. We aim to help clients notice and avoid any landmines that might be hiding in their long-term financial plan. Providing safer, more efficient ways of accessing and updating their accounts, while also actively monitoring for suspicious activity and ensuring accuracy is an effective method of doing so.

Please feel free to stay updated on Schwab’s technological advancements through their “Client Learning Center” page found here:

http://content.schwab.com/learningcenter/

Please also feel free to contact DWM with any questions or concerns regarding either advancements or safety.

At DWM, we are passionate about protecting our clients and helping them shape their financial future, worry-free. This is seen throughout our wealth management process, from investing to account management, to financial planning. We aim to help clients notice and avoid any landmines that might be hiding in their long-term financial plan. Providing safer, more efficient ways of accessing and updating their accounts, while also actively monitoring for suspicious activity and ensuring accuracy is an effective method of doing so.

Biases: Fluid & Fuzzy vs Rational

In a perfect world, we would all make optimal decisions that would provide us with the greatest value and satisfaction.  In economics, the rational choice theory states that when you are presented with options, you would choose that which maximizes your personal satisfaction.  This theory assumes that you make your decision by weighing the costs and benefits, without emotion and external factors.  If it were only that simple.

Enter behavioral economics.  It draws on psychology and economics to try to explain why people sometimes make irrational decisions, i.e. not following predictions of economic models based on a consistently rational, self-interested, and “utility” maximizing approach?  Psychology explains this deviation of behavior from what is expected rationally to be caused by “biases.”  Common examples of biases include:

  • Anchoring- relying too heavily on one piece of information
  • Confirmation-focusing on information that confirms one’s preconceptions
  • Endowment-demanding much more for something owned than what you would be willing to pay to acquire it
  • FOMO- Fear of missing out- paying too much to get into the “game”
  • Loss aversion- valuing the pain of losing twice as much as the satisfaction of making a gain
  • Normalcy- refusing to plan for a potential disaster that has never happened before
  • Recency- predicting the future results by expected recent results to continue

Koen Smets’s recent article in the Behavioral Scientist “There is More to Behavioral Economics than Biases and Fallacies” defines behavioral economics as the field that confronts us with our deeply potentially irrational selves.  “We are bamboozled by biases, fooled by fallacies, entrapped by errors, hoodwinked by heuristics, deluded by illusions.”  Ouch.

This brings to mind Ebenezer Scrooge’s question of the Ghost of Christmas Future:  “Are these signs of things that will happen or may happen?”  Perfect question, Ebenezer.  Actually, there is a widespread misconception that biases explain or even produce behavior.  Biases merely describe behavior that may or may not be followed.  They are simply labels for an observed behavior that contradicts traditional economics’ simplified “rational” expectations.

The conversation about biases is generally negative:  they interfere with our decision making or undermine our health, wealth and happiness.  For example, consider loss aversion.  Ten of thousands of years ago, humans were more concerned about losing a week’s food supply than gaining an extra week’s.  Today, an individual might never invest their cash because of a fear of losing money and have the purchasing power of their funds decreased by inflation.  This loss aversion is part of our evolutionary DNA, but that doesn’t mean that we have to exhibit that behavior.

Biases are tendencies that are not uniformly shared or employed.  Mr. Smet describes human behavior as “fluid and fuzzy.” These days, speed and simplification are keys and behavior based on biases is increasing.  Knowing that people are taking shortcuts, marketing has really stepped up its game.

“Heuristics” are really becoming huge. They are the various techniques we use to solve problems, learn or discover by using shortcuts.  Persuasion heuristics save us time and effort in making many of the hundreds of decisions we are confronted with each day.  Robert Cialdini, author of “Persuasion and Marketing” and political consultant, offers six key principles to persuading (or perhaps hoodwinking) a consumer using heuristics:

  • Authority-the voice or face of authority drives results. (Celebrity endorsements work)
  • Commitment and Consistency-consistent follow through establishes trust (Repetition works)
  • Scarcity-create hype based on time limits and expirations. (I see this every time I go to book a hotel room)
  • Liking-people are persuaded by others liking something. (Tripadvisor)
  • Social Proof- Show evidence of results. (People like to hear positive statistics-whether or not they are true)
  • Reciprocity-Offer discounts, free trials, sample products (people tend to “return a favor”)

We know biases exist. Some of them are in our DNA; some we learn over time.  At the same time, people and companies are aware of these potential biases as they are marketing their products, services, or suggestions.  Certainly, for many small decisions we need to make every day, there is no problem with taking a shortcut and even employing a bias.

However, when it comes to really important decisions, such as your wealth and happiness, it’s time to step up your game and move from fluid and fuzzy to rational.  These very important decisions generally take more time and require more due diligence.   You need to make sure you thoroughly and objectively understand and investigate choices and understand the likely risks and rewards of each.  To keep yourself “bias-free” at these times, you may benefit from having the expertise, skill and objectivity of a wealth manager like DWM who works with these important matters every day.  There’s a time for fluid and fuzzy and a time for rationality.  We’re here to help you when it’s time for rationality. Give us a call.