Election years have traditionally been good for the markets. Since 1928, there have been 21 elections and the S&P index has had a negative return during an election year only three times. Of course, 2 of those 3 negative years were 2000 and 2008. Hence, there may not be a pattern and, even if there was, the pattern may not be relevant to the decisions we are about to make.
Business Week had a great series of graphs in December showing how correlation and causation are often erroneously linked. They suggest that creating statistics is easy: all you need is two graphs and a leading question to “prove” whatever you already believe. For example, did you know that babies named Ava caused the U.S. housing bubble? Well, if you graph the number of newborns that were named Ava each year starting in 1991 until now and compared that graph to a graph of the housing price index over the same time, there is a significant correlation. After 2006, Ava, for whatever reason, has become a significantly less used name for newborns. Of course, this significant decline was very close in percentage terms to the decline in the housing market at the same time. Here’s another one: did you know that Facebook is driving the Greek Debt Crisis? Again, if you graph the Facebook stock price since 2005 and compare them with the yield (interest rate) on Greek debt until now, you will find a very strong correlation. There may be a correlation, but there is certainly not causation.
In a similar way, the performance of the stock and other markets has little to do with an election year. Typically, when an incumbent is doing well in the polls it is because the economy is doing well, unemployment is low and companies are generating solid earnings. These causes drive the stock market higher and make Americans feel more secure. Conversely, when economic conditions are weak and unemployment is high, the stock markets don’t perform as well and challengers have a better chance of winning.
Mr. Market doesn’t get into politics. He’s not a Republican or a Democrat. He’s more like radio and TV detective Sgt. Friday from Dragnet who reportedly wanted “Just the facts…” Current data and expectations concerning consumer spending, unemployment, corporate profits home and abroad, housing, inflation, world events and many other data points cause the markets to move. This information does two things- impact the markets and affect who may be elected.
Election year politics have become a huge spectacle. Yet, Mr. Market really pays little attention to all the promises, conflicts, hype and media show. He, instead, stays focused on relevant facts and moves accordingly.